Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/16/25

Apr 16, 2025 1 min read paid

Bonds Away!? Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term bond yields were associated with higher deficits; but the budget deficit has been widening since Covid despite a growing economy. Supply of long-term bonds also affects yields, but

Ed Yardeni

A Rubik's Cube Of Questions Along With Some Weak Soft Data

Apr 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying binge? Will robust capital spending related to onshoring offset weakness related to Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT)? Will China and the US escalate their trade war? Who will blink

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rise On Latest Trump Pivot

Apr 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to "help some of the car companies" with his 25% auto tariff (chart). The automakers "need a little bit of time" to move their production to the US, Trump said. Tech stocks rose too after guidance on Friday

Ed Yardeni

Tit-For-Tat: The Opposite Of Panda Diplomacy

Apr 14, 2025 2 min read

The trade war between the US and China is heating up, increasing the risk that China will invade Taiwan. Let us explain. On April 11, Reuters reported the following: "Shipments of seven rare earths placed on an export control list last week by Beijing have ground to halt, three sources said, raising the risk of shortages overseas as Chinese exporters begin the long, uncertain wait for government licenses. Shipments

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 14–18

Apr 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the goods-producing sector, consumer spending, and inflation. Macroeconomic data may be drowned out by more explosive volatility in the financial markets attributable to Trump's Nitro Tariffs (TNT). In addition, the Q1 earnings season has started, and company managements are likely to provide lots of "we-have-no-idea" guidance as a result of TNT. In any event, incoming data may signal

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Follow The Bouncing POTUS

Apr 13, 2025 4 min read paid

In our December 17 Morning Briefing, we wrote: "With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we see the potential for a market correction early next year." Our major concern was that the stock market's bulls were discounting too many cuts in the federal funds rate this year, while the bond market's bears were signaling that the Fed had already cut the rate

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Remain Unhappy

Apr 10, 2025 3 min read

It was not a happy day in the bond market. Neither was it a happy day in the stock market: Bond Market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.45% this evening, up from a recent low of 4.01% on April 4, two days after Liberation Day. Yesterday, President Donald Trump partially postponed Liberation Day because the bond market was "tricky." It remained tricky today. Yields

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Hit Another Homerun

Apr 9, 2025 3 min read paid

"Bond investors are the economy's bond vigilantes. ... So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won’t regulate the economy, the bond investors will. The economy will be run by vigilantes in the credit markets.” – Ed Yardeni, 1983 "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/9/25

Apr 9, 2025 1 min read paid

Annihilation Days Trump’s Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday, with the Stock Market Vigilantes giving a costly thumbs-down to Trump’s Reign of Tariffs. Trump officials say they aim to make Main Street wealthy again even if that’s bad for Wall Street. The problem is that Main Street owns lots of equities traded on Wall Street, so the two streets prosper and suffer

Ed Yardeni

Is Something About To Blow Up In The Credit Markets?

Apr 8, 2025 3 min read

The S&P 500 is now down almost 19%. It closed at 4982.77 (chart). If it falls another 1.35% down to 4915.32, it will be in a bear market. The index was up sharply at the start of trading today, but closed down 1.6% during regular trading hours after the magnitude and imminence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on US imports hit home. After

Ed Yardeni

Looking For A Stock Market Bottom In Fundamentals & Technicals

Apr 7, 2025 3 min read paid

After the stock market crashed on Thursday and Friday of last week, we have to conclude that any day during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't down more than 1000 points is a good day. Today was an okay day. The DJIA plunged 1652.81 through 9:42 a.m. It then soared 2518.86 by 10.16 a.m. on a bogus report that President Trump

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Wall Street Is Main Street

Apr 6, 2025 4 min read paid

Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal government's net interest outlays and to lower mortgage rates to make homes more affordable. A recession would also weaken the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which would boost

Ed Yardeni

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