Ed Yardeni

In 10 Charts: History & Future of DJIA and S&P 500

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

(1) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to hit 60,000 by the end of the decade. (2) The S&P 500 may be on course to rise above 8000 by the end of the decade. (3) The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s. EPS could

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Passing Tests With Flying Colors

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

While everyone in our business breathlessly awaits tomorrow's payroll employment report, the economy passed the brunt of this week's labor market tests with flying colors. Of course, the labor market is showing signs of easing. But that's mostly compared to the record tightness seen a couple years ago. We think the labor market is normalizing. Meanwhile, the economy continues to prove stronger than many

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The US Economy Is Roaring!

Oct 2, 2024 3 min read

Last Thursday on September 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released several very significant upward revisions to real GDP, real GDI, personal income, and personal saving. Collectively, they blew away the hard landing scenario. They didn't leave much if any room for the soft landing scenario either. They suggest that productivity growth will be revised higher and unit labor cost inflation will be revised lower. These revisions

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/2/24

Oct 2, 2024 1 min read paid

The permabears have fueled much negativity about the outlooks for the US economy and stock market. Their analyses often don’t hold up to scrutiny. Today, Dr Ed puts the prospects of a recession and a bear market into perspective, historically and in light of recent BEA data releases. The data show the economy to be remarkably resilient, including the goods producing sector. … With a strong economy and no recession

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein
Jackie Doherty

Stock Market Flinches On Widening Middle East War

Oct 1, 2024 3 min read paid

Stock prices and bond yields dipped while oil prices jumped this morning. In Washington, a senior White House official said the US is actively preparing to defend Israel against another direct missile attack by Iran. The official added that such an attack would carry severe consequences for Iran, which is under pressure to retaliate for recent Israeli military actions against Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon. The markets' initial reactions

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will China's Two Bazookas Shoot Silver Bullets?

Sep 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Over the past several days, China has unleashed several fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. China investor Jason Hu called these the "twin bazookas" policy of "[p]rint money and spend money." It's having an immediate effect, at least on stock prices. The Shanghai CSI 300 is up 27% since its low on September 17 (the day before the Fed's 50bps rate cut)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. The Fed started a new monetary easing cycle on September 18, cutting the federal funds rate by 50bps. The question now is how hard will it press on the gas pedal? Given last week's cooler-than-expected inflation print, the Fed will most likely retain its bias for easier monetary policy unless the labor market data are surprisingly strong. The consensus currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: October Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

We asked the very same question at the start of September, and were hard pressed to come up with an answer. We concluded: "So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher. We are still expecting a yearend rally to 5800 on the S&P 500, but it could already be underway." The S&P 500 rose 1.6% during September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: China Goes For Broke

Sep 27, 2024 5 min read paid

On Tuesday, China announced a raft of policies aimed at boosting the economy and encouraging consumption. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%. The central bank will also cut the amount of funds that lenders must hold in reserve by 0.5ppt, with more cuts expected later this year. And regulators will recapitalize China’s largest commercial banks;

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

Revisions Show US Economy Is Still Flying High

Sep 26, 2024 3 min read

Hard luck for the hard-landers today. Today's GDP report was full of upward revisions: (1) GDP versus GDI. Some of the hard-landers expected GDP to be revised lower after a large gap between GDP (which measures output) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) (which measures economic activity via wages and profits) emerged over the past few quarters. Over time, GDI closely tracks GDP, but discrepancies tend to be revised

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

When American Consumers Are Depressed, They Go Shopping

Sep 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys conducted by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The Consumer Optimism Index, which we calculate as the average of the CCI and CSI remains down and out (chart). The CCI tends to be more sensitive to employment, while the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/25/24

Sep 25, 2024 1 min read paid

The Fed is starting a new easing cycle to avoid a recession that we don’t see coming, based on concern about labor market deterioration that we don’t see occurring. Today, Dr. Ed compares and contrasts the world according to the Fed with the world according to our team, explaining the thinking behind both. Notably, the Fed is risking its credibility by easing without regard for election results, as

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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