Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/5/25

Feb 5, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of Gross National Product Why is the US economy so strong? Look in the mirror: The consumer is the engine of growth. Yes, technological advancements will continue to buoy GDP, as will Trump 2.0 deregulation and lower taxes. But consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of real GDP. We reject the notion that consumer spending will slow in the face of depleted saving and other drags; it’s

Ed Yardeni

Animal Spirits Boosting Capex Plans

Feb 4, 2025 2 min read paid

Google-parent Alphabet’s stock sank 7% after the closing bell today following its Q1 earnings report. That was partly because the company announced much higher 2025 capital expenditures than analysts anticipated. After spending $14.28 billion on CapEx in Q4-2024 (above the consensus estimate of $13.26 billion), Alphabet will spend $75 billion on CapEx during 2025, said CEO Sundar Pichai, mostly on building out its AI-related businesses. That'

Ed Yardeni

Make Manufacturing Great Again!

Feb 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Markets were abuzz with headlines from Washington today. The S&P 500 opened 1.7% lower on the weekend's news that President Donald Trump announced that he would slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday. But losses were pared significantly after Trump's call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum resulted in a one-month delay of tariffs as well as bilateral cooperation on fentanyl, immigration,

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 3-7

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

Aside from plenty of news about tariffs, the economic week ahead is jampacked with economic indicators that might be affected by tariffs in coming months. Capped off by January's monthly employment report on Friday, the week will also include releases on manufacturing, worker productivity, and bank lending. We're expecting more strong employment data this week, consistent with our overall bullish outlook for the US economy. The

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Beware The Front Cover Curse & Trump Tariffs 2.0

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

We are sure that Forbes magazine has had plenty of cover stories about successful entrepreneurs who survived the front-cover curse and remained successful. However, the magazine has also featured a few rising stars who subsequently crashed and burned. The latest Forbes front cover features Michael Saylor of Microstrategy and is titled "The Bitcoin Alchemist." It's not a ringing endorsement. In any event: We have been warned.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Digital Revolution Is Evolving

Feb 1, 2025 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 28, 2025. DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab that has rocked the world of artificial intelligence (AI) by developing a competitive Large Language Model, or LLM, that reportedly outperforms ChatGPT but was developed at a fraction of the cost with much less time required to “teach” the program. It also functions with cheaper and less powerful Nvidia GPU

Ed Yardeni

Fed's Dovish Pause Boosts Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his press conference yesterday was that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, but the Fed still intends to lower them over time. So it's a dovish pause. That boosted stock, gold, and bitcoin prices today. Meanwhile, Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained relatively low this past week. It was released yesterday morning before Powell'

Ed Yardeni

Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/29/25

Jan 29, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of The Bull Market (Will DeepSeek Sink It?) The current bull market has been driven mostly by valuation expansion; now valuation is historically high. We expect earnings growth to perpetuate the bull market this year; any more valuation expansion could leave the market vulnerable to a meltdown. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 7000, based on a solid rise in earnings with no further valuation

Ed Yardeni

Back On The Happy Trail

Jan 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both regained much of Monday's losses from the DeepSeek mini panic. It was yet another buying opportunity in the current bull market, as we anticipated in Sunday's QT.

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Stay Afloat in Deep Waters

Jan 27, 2025 3 min read paid

DeepSeek took a bite out of semiconductor, other tech, as well as nuclear power stocks today. Many of these AI plays dropped by double-digit percentage points, and Nvidia fell 17%. Other than the impact of the largest US stock nearly entering a bear market in one day, plus some collateral damage in other large stocks, the broader market held up just fine. The S&P 500 fell less than

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 27-31

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed full of important economic data releases, big tech earnings reports, and central bank meetings. Economic updates will include consumer sentiment, manufacturing, economic growth, and inflation. We're broadly expecting strong growth, including the first estimate of Q4 real GDP to come in around its historical average at 3.0% y/y (Tue), increasing from Q3's 2.7% (chart). Inflation should remain low,

Ed Yardeni

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