Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 2 - 6

Jun 1, 2025 3 min read

There's no question that President Donald Trump is stress testing the resilience of the economy with what we've been (objectively) calling Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The latest developments on Friday: Trump declared that China is violating terms agreed upon in its trade deal with the US, and he raised the tariff on aluminum and steel from 25% to 50%. Nevertheless, the resilience of the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: S&P 500 Earnings & Valuation

May 31, 2025 4 min read paid

We now have LSEG’s I/B/E/S data for S&P 500 companies’ revenues per share and earnings per share during Q1. Both edged down on a q/q basis but showed solid gains on a y/y basis (chart). The profit margin edged up to 13.3%. Notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), the economy remains resilient, supporting an upbeat outlook for revenues. Earnings should

Ed Yardeni

Checks and Balances

May 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The US is a federal republic. It isn't a democracy, where the majority always rules. The constitutional system was designed by the Founding Fathers, who were mostly lawyers, to provide checks and balances to avert the concentration of political power and to protect the rights of minority parties against abuses by the majority as well as by those in power. The three branches of government were designed to

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom

Ed Yardeni

Nvidia Isn't Cisco

May 28, 2025 3 min read paid

As Nvidia's stock price soared during 2024, the naysayers compared its ascent to Cisco's roundtrip performance during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, which was followed by the Tech Wreck of 2000 and 2001 (chart). Cisco was the tech darling of the dawning Internet Age. Nvidia is leading the way in the AI Age. Cisco crashed when the Dot.Com Bubble burst. When DeepSeek was

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Japan’s Brawl With The Bond Vigilantes

May 28, 2025 1 min read paid

After last week’s portentous Japanese government bond auction, in which demand was so weak as to be off the charts, William explains what went wrong and why. Contributing factors included the BOJ’s halted tightening owing to “tariff haze,” the Prime Minister’s unfortunate remark likening the nation’s fiscal situation to that of Greece, and vestiges of Japan’s economic past. But having Japan-specific causes doesn’t

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Happy Day

May 27, 2025 3 min read paid

Today is a happy day for stock investors. They are pleased that President Donald Trump had a pleasant phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend. So he postponed his threat on Friday to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 to July 9. Today, Trump said he is monitoring "positive" steps in trade talks with the region, which has

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 27 - 30

May 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is starting with another tariff whiplash. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners but postponed them for 90 days on April 9. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on the European Union, Apple Inc., and perhaps Samsung and other tech giants to be named later. But on Sunday, he postponed Friday's June 1 tariff of 50%

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Don't Get Thrown Off The Bull

May 25, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Demographics Entrench Deflation In China

May 24, 2025 3 min read paid

For a decade now, economists have been theorizing about how China’s aging and shrinking population might affect its economic growth potential (Fig. 1 below and Fig. 2 below). Yet there’s nothing conjectural about the ways demographics are now exacerbating the nation’s deflation troubles. As Japan’s experience since the 1990s has highlighted, few Asians in their mid-60s and higher consume with gusto as twenty- and thirty-

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

The Elephants In The Room

May 22, 2025 3 min read

The elephant is as good a metaphor as there is for the US government bond market. Its scale, power, memory, emotional intelligence, and tendency to live in complex family groups—just like the broad array of debt instruments—are right on the nose . . . er, trunk. Yet this week, we saw that the room in which the bond market operates has more than one elephant. The other large mammal in question

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Is A US Government Debt Crisis Imminent?

May 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock investors have been less "tarrified" about President Donald Trump's tariffs since April 9, when he postponed most of his proposed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days (chart). However, they may now be getting spooked that the bond market might be on the verge of a debt crisis, especially after Moody's downgraded US government debt on Friday and Japanese bond yields soared in recent days.

Ed Yardeni

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