Ed Yardeni

Market Call: More Churning?

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been expecting the stock market to churn for a while. We didn't expect it would churn so much in just one week as it did last week. So now what? Our bet is probably more churning is ahead with lots of volatility through the presidential election.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 12-16

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week's financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of coming interest rate cuts, the most important indicators are likely to be those closely tied to the Fed's dual mandate. Here's what we're watching

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Stock Market Selloff: Blame the Sahm Rule, Carry Trades & Too Many Bulls

Aug 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Blaming the Sahm Rule, Carry Trades & Too Many Bulls. The stock markets’ adverse reaction to Friday’s jobs report apparently was to price in a hard landing and to expect a series of federal funds rate (FFR) cuts by the Fed, including a 50-basis-point cut in September. Helping to unnerve investors was that the increase in the unemployment rate might have triggered the Sahm Rule, implying that the jobless

Ed Yardeni

Tough Treasury Auctions Belie Renewed Recession Chatter

Aug 8, 2024 3 min read paid

US stock prices and bond yields rose today following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims report confirming our view that the labor market is still doing well. The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% to 5,319.31 and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 4.00%. The recent lift in the bond yield was exacerbated by the second straight day of weak Treasury auctions. Let&

Ed Yardeni

Claims Will Tell

Aug 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/7/24

Aug 7, 2024 1 min read paid

A weak July employment report does not a recession make. The financial markets reacted on Friday as though it does, but we believe that report was a weather-impacted anomaly and not representative of the strength of the US labor market. Eric & Ed make that case today, explaining what was going on behind the scenes to make Friday’s stock market unusually volatile, why we expect employment data to snap

Ed Yardeni

Remaining Zen About The Yen

Aug 6, 2024 3 min read paid

BREAKING NEWS: Deputy BOJ Governor Uchida said that the central bank won't raise interest rates when markets are unstable. His dovish remark gave a broad lift to risk-on appetite in Asia. We wrote the following before this news came out.

Ed Yardeni

Is Japan's Carry-Trade Earthquake Over Yet?

Aug 5, 2024 3 min read

This morning, US stocks and bonds were quick to price in Japan's stock market carnage overnight. Tokyo's Nikkei stock price index fell more than 12%, its worst day since "Black Monday" in October 1987, as the yen surged to 142 against the dollar (chart). This time, the crash was in carry trades financed in Japan. In 1987, it was so-called portfolio insurance in the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Pushing Back Against the Diehard Hard-Landers

Aug 4, 2024 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 5-9

Aug 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is relatively light in terms of economic reports. It's also light on talking Fed heads. But, we won't be surprised if one or two of them pops up on CNBC. We think they might push back against the rate-cut mob that is calling for a 50bps cut in the federal funds rate in September. It would be a shame if they joined in

Ed Yardeni

Beryling Toward Rate Cuts

Aug 2, 2024 2 min read

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here's the market action as of midday: * The Nasdaq officially entered a correction, down more than 10% from its record high reached roughly a month ago. * The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) popped to 29, which hasn’t been seen since

Ed Yardeni

Risk On, Risk Off

Aug 1, 2024 2 min read paid

Today was a good day for the diehard hard-landers and the "stag-disinflationists." They're probably high fiving each other. We are in neither camp–we expect a continuation of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., a growing economy with subdued inflation. We're high fiving over today’s productivity and labor costs report. In any event, bond investors are certainly enjoying themselves; the 10-year yield fell 12 basis

Ed Yardeni

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