Eric Wallerstein

Break Out The Bubbly: Lots Of New Record Highs

Oct 9, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher." We wrote the same at the start of October.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/9/24

Oct 9, 2024 1 min read paid

It takes a lot to kill an economic expansion, often a credit crisis during periods of Fed tightening that escalates into a credit crunch and a recession. The latest tightening has ended, and that didn’t happen. Now the latest batch of strong economic data should finally lay to rest the diehard hard-landers’ recession warnings. It should also cast doubt on whether the Fed needed to ease at all on

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Larry & Ray’s Not-So Excellent Adventure in China is Over

Oct 8, 2024 3 min read paid

Both Blackrock's Larry Fink and Bridgewater's Ray Dalio have been notable and vocal China bulls for several years. It seems they've both joined our camp in recent days, issuing caution against investing in China as it supports Russia's war against Ukraine and becomes less favorable to capitalism. They should have placed their bets on stock markets in democracies such as the United

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Back To Higher For Longer?

Oct 6, 2024 2 min read

Remember the "higher for longer" mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into "lower and sooner" this summer in response to the economy's soft patch. After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to "no rush to ease further" during the fall. We can't rule out "higher for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: No Hard Feelings

Oct 6, 2024 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our September 30, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written before the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. ]Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart economists and strategists who tend to be bearish. We look to them for a thorough analysis of what could go wrong for the economy

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 7-11

Oct 6, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's inflation indicators should show that it continues to moderate toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Also, this week's initial unemployment claims (Thu) will be for the same week that October's payroll employment report will reflect. That should provide a sense of how Hurricane Helene (and some workers' strikes) might have impacted the next monthly jobs report. Of course, we

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Big Employment Increase Puts Recession Story to Bed

Oct 4, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's payroll employment report for September and upward revisions for July and August were much stronger than the consensus expected. We weren't surprised. They should bury the looming recession scenario. Stock futures immediately surged, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bps to 3.95%, and the dollar moved higher. As we previously observed, the Fed's 50bps cut in the federal funds rate on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

In 10 Charts: History & Future of DJIA and S&P 500

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

(1) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to hit 60,000 by the end of the decade. (2) The S&P 500 may be on course to rise above 8000 by the end of the decade. (3) The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s. EPS could

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Passing Tests With Flying Colors

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

While everyone in our business breathlessly awaits tomorrow's payroll employment report, the economy passed the brunt of this week's labor market tests with flying colors. Of course, the labor market is showing signs of easing. But that's mostly compared to the record tightness seen a couple years ago. We think the labor market is normalizing. Meanwhile, the economy continues to prove stronger than many

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/2/24

Oct 2, 2024 1 min read paid

The permabears have fueled much negativity about the outlooks for the US economy and stock market. Their analyses often don’t hold up to scrutiny. Today, Dr Ed puts the prospects of a recession and a bear market into perspective, historically and in light of recent BEA data releases. The data show the economy to be remarkably resilient, including the goods producing sector. … With a strong economy and no recession

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein
Jackie Doherty

Stock Market Flinches On Widening Middle East War

Oct 1, 2024 3 min read paid

Stock prices and bond yields dipped while oil prices jumped this morning. In Washington, a senior White House official said the US is actively preparing to defend Israel against another direct missile attack by Iran. The official added that such an attack would carry severe consequences for Iran, which is under pressure to retaliate for recent Israeli military actions against Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon. The markets' initial reactions

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will China's Two Bazookas Shoot Silver Bullets?

Sep 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Over the past several days, China has unleashed several fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. China investor Jason Hu called these the "twin bazookas" policy of "[p]rint money and spend money." It's having an immediate effect, at least on stock prices. The Shanghai CSI 300 is up 27% since its low on September 17 (the day before the Fed's 50bps rate cut)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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