The next couple of weeks will certainly be interesting. The FOMC will decide on whether to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) or not on July 30. On August 1, the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from America's trading partners. Furthermore, administration officials will undoubtedly continue to beat up on the Fed, especially if the FOMC decides not to lower the FFR next week.
This morning, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve, questioning its effectiveness and suggesting it has not succeeded in its mission. In a CNBC interview on "Squawk Box," he criticized the Fed for "fear-mongering" over President Trump's tariffs, noting that inflation has remained low despite these policies. Bessent remarked, "They were fear-mongering over tariffs, and thus far we have seen very little, if any, inflation." He also expressed frustration with the Fed's staff, stating, "All these PhDs over there, I don’t know what they do."
This latest attack by the administration on the Fed weighed on the DXY dollar index and boosted the price of gold (chart). The S&P 500 remained at a record high, though a rally in the morning fizzled by the afternoon. It's as though investors are anticipating that the FOMC won't cut the FFR next week, but will signal that a September cut is likely. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have to turn more dovish to avoid having two Fed governors (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both appointed by Trump) dissent next week.
