We won't keep you in suspense: We think the bear market in the S&P 500 bottomed on June 16. If so, then we're in a new bull market. Consider the following based on our Blue Angels framework (chart below):
(1) Corrections occur in bull markets when investors fear a recession that doesn't happen. The forward P/E drops, while forward earnings continues to rise or flatten, along with the economy. When investors' recession fears abate, the P/E rebounds and the bull market resumes.