Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 19)

A Bond Vigilante In Trump's Court

Feb 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump 2.0 is borrowing a page from the Clinton administration's playbook, specifically the one in which Robert Rubin and James Carville warned Clinton that he had to respect the power of the Bond Vigilantes and maintain fiscal discipline. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that he and President Trump are less concerned with the federal funds rate (FFR) and instead are hoping to contain the 10-year

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bessent Follows Yellen’s Lead & Gold Price Rises To New High

Feb 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The bond market relaxed today after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's debut Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) proved to be a non-event. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9bps to 4.43%, its lowest level since the Federal Reserve's last rate cut, in mid-December (chart). Bessent had been critical of Janet Yellen's usage of short-term Treasury bills to finance the federal budget deficit. Many investors, therefore, were

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/5/25

Feb 5, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of Gross National Product Why is the US economy so strong? Look in the mirror: The consumer is the engine of growth. Yes, technological advancements will continue to buoy GDP, as will Trump 2.0 deregulation and lower taxes. But consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of real GDP. We reject the notion that consumer spending will slow in the face of depleted saving and other drags; it’s

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Animal Spirits Boosting Capex Plans

Feb 4, 2025 2 min read paid

Google-parent Alphabet’s stock sank 7% after the closing bell today following its Q1 earnings report. That was partly because the company announced much higher 2025 capital expenditures than analysts anticipated. After spending $14.28 billion on CapEx in Q4-2024 (above the consensus estimate of $13.26 billion), Alphabet will spend $75 billion on CapEx during 2025, said CEO Sundar Pichai, mostly on building out its AI-related businesses. That'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Make Manufacturing Great Again!

Feb 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Markets were abuzz with headlines from Washington today. The S&P 500 opened 1.7% lower on the weekend's news that President Donald Trump announced that he would slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday. But losses were pared significantly after Trump's call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum resulted in a one-month delay of tariffs as well as bilateral cooperation on fentanyl, immigration,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 3-7

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

Aside from plenty of news about tariffs, the economic week ahead is jampacked with economic indicators that might be affected by tariffs in coming months. Capped off by January's monthly employment report on Friday, the week will also include releases on manufacturing, worker productivity, and bank lending. We're expecting more strong employment data this week, consistent with our overall bullish outlook for the US economy. The

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Beware The Front Cover Curse & Trump Tariffs 2.0

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

We are sure that Forbes magazine has had plenty of cover stories about successful entrepreneurs who survived the front-cover curse and remained successful. However, the magazine has also featured a few rising stars who subsequently crashed and burned. The latest Forbes front cover features Michael Saylor of Microstrategy and is titled "The Bitcoin Alchemist." It's not a ringing endorsement. In any event: We have been warned.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Digital Revolution Is Evolving

Feb 1, 2025 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 28, 2025. DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab that has rocked the world of artificial intelligence (AI) by developing a competitive Large Language Model, or LLM, that reportedly outperforms ChatGPT but was developed at a fraction of the cost with much less time required to “teach” the program. It also functions with cheaper and less powerful Nvidia GPU

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Fed's Dovish Pause Boosts Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his press conference yesterday was that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, but the Fed still intends to lower them over time. So it's a dovish pause. That boosted stock, gold, and bitcoin prices today. Meanwhile, Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained relatively low this past week. It was released yesterday morning before Powell'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/29/25

Jan 29, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of The Bull Market (Will DeepSeek Sink It?) The current bull market has been driven mostly by valuation expansion; now valuation is historically high. We expect earnings growth to perpetuate the bull market this year; any more valuation expansion could leave the market vulnerable to a meltdown. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 7000, based on a solid rise in earnings with no further valuation

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Back On The Happy Trail

Jan 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both regained much of Monday's losses from the DeepSeek mini panic. It was yet another buying opportunity in the current bull market, as we anticipated in Sunday's QT.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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