Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 9)

Not Much Stagflation Today

May 15, 2025 4 min read

Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he and President Donald Trump were focusing on the 10-year Treasury bond yield as a key metric for economic health, rather than the Fed's short-term interest rate. He stated, "He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," indicating a strategy to manage borrowing costs through fiscal policy rather than pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

POTUS: From Tariff Man To Global Salesman

May 14, 2025 2 min read paid

Stock investors are much happier now that President Donald Trump seems to be pivoting from pushing prohibitive tariffs to pushing American semiconductors and Boeing jets in the Middle East. President Donald Trump used a state visit to Qatar today to announce a large purchase by Qatar Airways of Boeing jets. Trump said the order was for 160 airplanes and claimed it was the largest order in Boeing's history.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/14/25

May 14, 2025 1 min read paid

Earnings & Valuation Under Trump 2.0 So Far Even though Q1 earnings were fabulous, most economists, industry analysts, and corporate managements have low hopes that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil won’t dunk the US economy into a recession this year. Not us: We’re counting on the economy’s resilience. Today, Dr Ed discusses why the widely expected recession, like others in recent years, will be a no-show. Hard-to-ignore

Ed Yardeni

A Quiet Day For A Change

May 13, 2025 3 min read members

The Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn't up or down by 1,000 points today. The S&P 500's VIX was back down below 20 on Monday and again today (chart). The yield spread between corporate junk bonds and the 10-year Treasury bond has narrowed recently. The latter seems to be settling down around 4.50%, in the middle of our 2025 range of 4.25%

Ed Yardeni

Recalibrating Our Forecasts As Stock Market Roars

May 12, 2025 4 min read paid

Among our main concerns about Trump's Tariff Turmoil was that the drop in stock prices would have a significant negative wealth effect on consumers, especially retired and soon-to-be retiring Baby Boomers, who collectively own about $25 trillion in corporate equities and mutual funds (chart). We raised our subjective probability of a recession this year from 20% to 35% on March 5, and from 35% to 45% on March

Ed Yardeni

By The Shores Of Lake Geneva

May 12, 2025 3 min read

Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process." The US and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Stock prices soared on this

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 12 - 16

May 11, 2025 4 min read

The coming week is jampacked with several April economic indicators and a couple of May regional business surveys. On balance, they should show that the soft data turned even softer mostly in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. The hard data are likely to be mixed, though consumer-related indicators should show resilience. The week's headline inflation indicators may be subdued by stable energy prices, while the core

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Let's Make A Deal

May 11, 2025 3 min read paid

Dealmaking is in the air. American and Chinese delegations met this past weekend to discuss how they might deescalate their trade war. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine on May 15 in the Turkish city of Istanbul that he said should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the war. A fragile ceasefire was holding between India and Pakistan

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Is The Recession Over Already?

May 9, 2025 8 min read

US Economy I: The Godot Recession Is Back. During 2022, 2023, and 2024, most economists and investment strategists expected that the dramatic tightening of monetary policy would cause a recession. They observed that the inverting yield curve and the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators were confirming this outlook. We argued that the recession was the most widely anticipated recession of all times that wasn’t likely to happen. We

Ed Yardeni

From Trade Wars To Trade Deals

May 8, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump will need to declare victories in his trade wars with multiple countries around the world sooner rather than later. He and his fellow Republicans have to avoid a recession caused by his tariff wars. Otherwise, they risk losing their thin majorities in both houses of Congress later in 2026. In addition, court cases are piling up that challenge the President’s legal authority to declare a crisis

Ed Yardeni

Stop The World—We Want To Get Off!

May 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/7/25

May 7, 2025 1 min read paid

Is The Recession Over Already? We believe in the resilience of the US economy. Recent years’ monetary tightening didn’t bring on a recession; this year’s tariff turmoil isn’t likely to either. We’re lowering the odds we see of a recession back to 35%, where it had been in early March. One reason is that China and the US appear ready to start negotiating a trade deal.

Ed Yardeni

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