Bear Case

DEEP DIVE: 2026--Another Year Of Living Audaciously!

This is a reprint of our December 11, 2025 Morning Briefing. 2026 I: What Will Likely Go Right? The Roaring 2020s remains our base-case scenario. For 2026, we are raising our subjective odds of this prospect from 50% to 60%. We are less concerned about a meltup/meltdown scenario now, so we are lowering the odds of that from 30% to 20%. We are keeping our bearish scenario at 20%