Bear Case

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What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

May 27, 2026 5 min read paid

The bull case for the stock market remains intact. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today. The economy and the labor market remain resilient. Consumers are spending. The AI boom is boosting capital spending. Corporate earnings are soaring on strong revenues growth and higher profit margins. The odds of a recession in 2026 fell to 19% today, the lowest reading of the year (chart). Stock

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

DEEP DIVE: 2026--Another Year Of Living Audaciously!

Dec 29, 2025 10 min read paid

This is a reprint of our December 11, 2025 Morning Briefing. 2026 I: What Will Likely Go Right? The Roaring 2020s remains our base-case scenario. For 2026, we are raising our subjective odds of this prospect from 50% to 60%. We are less concerned about a meltup/meltdown scenario now, so we are lowering the odds of that from 30% to 20%. We are keeping our bearish scenario at 20%

Ed Yardeni