Paid Bonds Weigh On Stocks Dec 27, 2022 1 min read paid The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose from a recent low of 3.425% on December 7 to 3.849% today, the highest since early November. We still believe it peaked at 4.248% on October 12. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries remained inverted at 50bps today. An inverted yield curve tends to coincide with the end of monetary policy tightening cycles and Ed Yardeni
Paid Opera & The Fed Sep 30, 2022 1 min read paid They say that "the opera ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." Similarly, the current bear market ain't over until Fed Chair Jerome Powell pivots yet again. Since the late summer, Powell & Co. have been squawking like hawks about their commitment to bring inflation down no matter how high interest rates must go. They should all be wearing Volcker 2.0 T- Ed Yardeni
Public Copper, Gold, Bonds & Stocks Jul 12, 2022 1 min read The ratio of the nearby futures prices of copper to gold has been falling lately. The ratio has been a remarkably good indicator for the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. Ed Yardeni
Public Is the Bond Market Anticipating Peak Inflation? Jul 11, 2022 1 min read The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has recently stabilized around 3.00%. That calm reflects a remarkable increase in the comparable TIPS yield that has been offset by a drop in the expected-inflation component of the nominal yield. What's going on? Consider the following: (1) Until the past few weeks, the daily TIPS yield has been highly correlated with the monthly real bond yield, defined as Ed Yardeni
Paid Dr. Copper May Be Signaling Peak Inflation Jun 23, 2022 1 min read paid Dr. Copper, the base metal with a PhD in economics, may be signaling a top in the CRB raw industrials spot price index. It dropped below $4.00 for the first time this year to $3.92 today (chart below). It may be predicting a global economic slowdown, but it's too soon to tell if it is foreshadowing an impending US recession. Ed Yardeni
