Bull Market

MARKET CALL: Riding A Bucking Bull

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read paid

In recent weeks, many news headlines have suggested that the US economy is tanking and that so is the Old World Order. So investors are jittery, and a risk-off investment style is back in favor relative to a risk-on posture. They are questioning whether Trump 2.0 might depress the economy before stimulating it because higher tariffs, deportations, and federal job cuts are occurring before tax cuts, deregulation, and lower

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

2024 Was A Roaringly Good Year For Stocks

Jan 1, 2025 3 min read

This is the time of year when we all wish one another a healthy, happy, and prosperous new year. The past two years were certainly prosperous ones for equities investors, as the S&P 500 rose 23.3% following a 24.2% gain in 2023. Those gains more than offset the 19.4% loss during 2022. On average, the S&P 500 is up 9.4% per year

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Permabulls Versus Permabears

Dec 23, 2024 9 min read

I. The Light Side In a November 19 post titled “Yardeni And The Long History of Stock Market Prediction Problems,” Lance Roberts, the Chief Investment Strategist for RIA Advisors, wrote that I am a permabull. The slant of his article was critical of both my upbeat Roaring 2020s forecast and my often optimistic outlook for the economy and stock market: “In conclusion, while Yardeni’s optimistic forecast is enticing, several

Ed Yardeni

Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls

Dec 5, 2024 3 min read

We were very bullish at the start of this year with a Street-high year-end price target of 5400 for the S&P 500. That level was surpassed on June 12. We weren't bullish enough as the stampeding bulls left hoof marks on our backs. So we raised our target to 5800 on July 10, which was surpassed on November 6 (chart). So we raised our target to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

An Earnings-Led Meltup For Stocks?

Nov 19, 2024 3 min read paid

We are often asked if the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That's a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are the main worry for many investors (chart). However, our bullish outlook for strong productivity-led economic growth means that earnings rather than valuations can lead the market higher. Coupled with

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Trump 2.0 and the Financial Markets

Nov 6, 2024 4 min read paid

Donald Trump's win and the Republican sweep of the House (probably) and the Senate (certainly) is consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario. Indeed, it increases the odds that the good times will continue through the end of the decade and possibly into the 2030s. Stocks soared today on the widespread perception that Trump 2.0 will include a cut in the corporate tax rate and reductions in business

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Contrarian Curses & Tricky Cross Currents Since September 18

Nov 4, 2024 3 min read paid

Investors often rejoice when a stock they own is selected to join a major market index. Index funds collectively have trillions of dollars in AUM and must buy the stock in bulk, giving a boost to its price. But sometimes these bestowed honors can be a curse for the newbie. Super Micro Computer, for instance, joined the S&P 500 on March 18. It had peaked at a record

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Still Flying High

Aug 29, 2024 3 min read paid

Today was a Roaring 2020s kind of day. The DJIA jumped to yet another record high. Stock prices rose even as Nvidia dipped after beating quarterly earnings expectations (which were widely expected to beat expectations). Once again: No recession in today's economic indicators. For the past couple of years, many economists (and Jamie Dimon) have predicted that the consumer would soon be "tapped out" after exhausting

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Remaining Zen About The Yen

Aug 6, 2024 3 min read paid

BREAKING NEWS: Deputy BOJ Governor Uchida said that the central bank won't raise interest rates when markets are unstable. His dovish remark gave a broad lift to risk-on appetite in Asia. We wrote the following before this news came out.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Fed Pivot, Trump 2.0, SCOTUS Chevron Ruling & Earnings Broaden Stock Market Meltup

Jul 16, 2024 3 min read

We've been predicting a broadening stock market meltup in the event that the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) as inflation moderates while economic growth remains solid. Last week's CPI and today's retail sales report confirm that's what's happening in the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments yesterday sealed the deal: As of this morning,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Yikes: Everyone Is Bullish!

Mar 13, 2024 2 min read

During the week of October 11, 2022, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) fell to a cyclical low of 0.57 (chart). The previous bear market bottomed the next day on October 12, 2022. The BBR reading back then was the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis. We turned bullish in early November figuring that sentiment was much too bearish and that the most widely expected recession of all

Ed Yardeni

Broadening Bull

Mar 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index is up 43.2% since the current bull market started on October 12, 2022 (chart). The equal-weighted version of the index is up 29.5% since it bottomed on September 30, 2022. This confirms our view that the bull market has been a broad one all along. The equal-weighted index has certainly been in a bull market, it just hasn'

Ed Yardeni

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