Consumer

Will The US Economy Remain Resilient Despite AI Derangement Syndrome?

Feb 26, 2026 4 min read paid

If AI continues to disrupt, if not destroy, more and more business models, won't that cause a recession? It might if it triggers lots of white-collar layoffs, which in turn lead to blue-collar job losses (chart). Alternatively, it might cause a credit crunch in the private credit markets. UBS Group AG has raised its private credit default forecast, with its strategists warning that losses could reach as high

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 23–27

Feb 22, 2026 3 min read

Now that the gavel has fallen on Donald Trump’s tariffs, the question is how the US president will try to save face. President Trump’s move on Saturday to slap 15% universal levies on the globe—up from an initial 10% on Friday—dispels the notion that Trump might’ve lost the taste for trade-warring. Where Trump takes tariffs now is anyone’s guess. On Friday, the Supreme Court

Ed Yardeni

The AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios

Nov 18, 2025 3 min read

Will today's widely feared AI crisis turn out to be a no-show, too, just like the most widely anticipated recession of all time, anxiously awaited over most of the past four years? We think so. Stock investors are increasingly worrying about an AI-led Tech Wreck, like the one in 2000 after the 1999 Tech Bubble burst. Now, many of them believe the stock market is in an AI-led

Ed Yardeni

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

Sep 16, 2025 2 min read paid

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary of Economic Projections may also indicate that FOMC participants are divided on whether and when further cuts might be necessary. Tomorrow's rate cut isn&

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 15 - 19

Sep 14, 2025 3 min read

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Bank of England (Thu), and the Bank of Japan (Fri) may reveal much about the degree to which US tariffs are disrupting economies around

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Tomorrow is August 1

Jul 31, 2025 2 min read paid

The April 2 Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were postponed on April 9 to July 9 and again to August 1. The S&P 500's latest correction bottomed on April 8. The rebound to new record highs has been extraordinary. Today's selloff on mostly good news suggests that investors and traders might be starting to take profits before going on their August vacations. They might also

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 28–May 2

Apr 27, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic updates. The headliners will be Q1's GDP and March's personal income and expenditures (both Wed) as well as April's payroll employment (Fri). We're expecting relatively strong employment data, which should highlight the US economy's resilience notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The week's inflation indicators likely remained subdued, although tariff-related

Ed Yardeni

Strongest Buy Signal Ever?

Apr 24, 2025 3 min read paid

On Sunday (April 20), we observed that The Economist had just featured three consecutive very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the US economy. Make that four consecutive bearish cover stories, with this week's magazine showing an eagle battered by Trump's first 100 days (image). We

Ed Yardeni

A Rubik's Cube Of Questions Along With Some Weak Soft Data

Apr 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying binge? Will robust capital spending related to onshoring offset weakness related to Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT)? Will China and the US escalate their trade war? Who will blink

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Wall Street Is Main Street

Apr 6, 2025 4 min read paid

Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal government's net interest outlays and to lower mortgage rates to make homes more affordable. A recession would also weaken the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which would boost

Ed Yardeni

In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

Feb 25, 2025 3 min read

The stock market sold off this morning on a decline in February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), confirming a similar decline in February's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which was reported at the end of last week. The CSI survey tends to be more affected by inflation, while the CCI survey is more affected by employment. The former was weak this month on concerns about rising inflation, while

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 24-28

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead will feature Nvidia's earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. That may be more important to the stock market than any of the economic indicators to be released during the week. Last week, Elon Musk's artificial-intelligence startup, xAI, unveiled its latest AI model, Grok 3, claiming it outperforms DeepSeek and OpenAI models across various benchmarks. The firm utilized 200,000 GPUs to

Ed Yardeni

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