Consumer Confidence

Help Still Wanted

Oct 29, 2024 2 min read paid

We don't expect to be disappointed by October's payroll employment report on Friday. Both September's JOLTS report and October's consumer confidence survey suggest that the labor market remains in good shape. Better yet, it may be improving. The impact of bad weather and strike-related layoffs will make a dent in October's payroll employment number, but that doesn't mean

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

When American Consumers Are Depressed, They Go Shopping

Sep 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys conducted by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The Consumer Optimism Index, which we calculate as the average of the CCI and CSI remains down and out (chart). The CCI tends to be more sensitive to employment, while the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Global Monetary Fire Hose To The Rescue!

Sep 24, 2024 3 min read paid

Chinese stocks rose 4.1% overnight thanks to the flurry of easing measures from its central bank (chart). The Peoples Bank of China lowered bank reserve requirements, cut interest rates, and will provide leverage to brokers to buy stocks. Propping up stocks with government funding sounds more like panic than proactivity to us. But the skinny of the matter is that the Fed's 50bps rate cut last week

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Economic Week Ahead: September 23-27

Sep 22, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's economic indicators should confirm our view that the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps (rather than 25bs) last week just as the economy is rebounding from its recent soft patch. Fed Governor Chris Waller's Friday comments on CNBC suggest even previously hawkish FOMC members are now onboard Chair Jerome Powell's easing train. Meanwhile, regional manufacturing surveys (Tue & Thu)

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Less Help Wanted: Sign of Trouble for Labor Market?

Aug 27, 2024 3 min read paid

Nvidia is set to report quarterly results tomorrow. We bet that the company won't disappoint unless it announces that its highly anticipated Blackwell chip isn't quite ready for primetime. A CNBC headline trumpeted today that Nvidia is the world's "most important stock." It certainly has had an amazing run as its revenues have soared and so has its forward profit margin, currently

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Sunny Economy, Gloomy Dispositions

May 28, 2024 2 min read paid

Inflation is the number one economic concern among consumers today. It's also moderated significantly since the summer of 2022; the prices of durable goods are even deflating a bit. The labor market remains strong, boosting consumer spending. Stocks are at all-time highs. Yet, according to a recently released Fed survey, only 22% of Americans think the US economy is in good or excellent shape, down from 50% before

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Man With The Midas Touch

Mar 26, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 25 - 29

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

The most important economic indicator for the week ahead will be February's PCED inflation rate, which comes out on Friday. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast shows the headline and core rates rising 0.4% and 0.3% m/m, and 2.5% and 2.8% y/y. Those results would be about the same as January's, possibly raising concerns that inflation has stalled and

Ed Yardeni

July's Consumer Confidence Up As Jobs Remain Plentiful

Jul 25, 2023 1 min read paid

Among the earliest monthly indicators of the US jobs market is the consumer confidence survey conducted by the Conference Board. July’s survey came out on Tuesday. The Consumer Confidence Index rose smartly this month, with solid gains in both its current conditions and expectations components (chart). Furthermore, consider the following: (1) The survey’s “jobs plentiful” series edged up to 46.9% (chart). That’s down from readings of

Ed Yardeni

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