CPI Inflation

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

'Obliteration Day' Was Postponed. Time To Buy Stocks?

Mar 24, 2026 4 min read paid

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country doesn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday, while talks with Iran continue. Investors and traders recall that stocks soared on April 9, 2025, an hour before the stock market closed after Trump

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait & The Home Front

Mar 12, 2026 5 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as oil prices rose back to around $100 per barrel. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran from the air, but Iran's regime continues to launch missiles and drones at Gulf nations and vessels, and Israel too. The WSJ reported today that "Israeli officials assess Iran's ruling regime is unlikely to fall soon, as its rulers remain in

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 8-12

Mar 8, 2026 3 min read

This promises to be a nerve-racking week of developments in the Middle East. In the nine days since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has embroiled various neighboring countries. Tehran’s moves to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz are causing sharp spikes in oil and gas prices – and sending economic forecasters back to the drawing board. This evening, Brent crude topped $100 a barrel. As

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Feb 16, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Overview On long car rides, the kids in the backseat often ask their parents, "Are we there yet?" That's the question investors are asking about inflation: "Are we at the Fed's 2.0% inflation target yet?" Our answer: "Not quite, but we are getting close." January's CPI report showed headline inflation at 2.4% y/y (chart)

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 9-13

Feb 8, 2026 3 min read

As the polar vortex generates arctic blasts around the US, things are about to heat up on the economic data front. The week ahead includes arguably the two most consequential releases with respect to the outlook for Federal Reserve policy—January's employment and CPI reports. Thanks to recent government shutdowns, the employment (Wed) and CPI (Fri) releases are unusually close together. The jobs report is especially important, as

Ed Yardeni

Too Much Good Economic News?

Jan 22, 2026 4 min read

Investors have decided that the Greenland issue will be resolved now that there is a framework for resolving it. So far this year, they seem to be looking for greener pastures, as evidenced by the broadening of the bull market in stocks. Booming economic activity has provided plenty of greener pastures. There was plenty of good economic news today that should continue to bolster earnings and stock prices. Nevertheless, a

Ed Yardeni

CRIB SHEET: The New Year

Jan 1, 2026 4 min read paid

Happy 2026! It should be the seventh year of our Roaring 2020s scenario, with three more to go. We first wrote about this scenario on August 11, 2020, in our Morning Briefing titled "Another Roaring Twenties May Still Be Ahead." We predicted, "So far, the 2020s has started with the pandemic, but there are plenty of years left for the prosperous 1920s to become a precedent for

Ed Yardeni

Misleading CPI, Misleading Business Surveys, Reliable Claims

Dec 18, 2025 2 min read

Now that the government shutdown is over, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is releasing economic indicators again. However, the quality of the latest releases is an issue. Today's lower-than-expected November CPI inflation report boosted stock and bond prices after its release. But the gains faded as economists started to question the CPI numbers. Indeed, the release included a warning that the government shutdown might have distorted the

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 15–19

Dec 14, 2025 3 min read

This week is loaded with long-delayed government data releases, including on employment and inflation, which will provide a reality check on the economy's performance in the final weeks of 2025. This week's earnings reports from FedEx, General Mills, Carnival, and Jabil could also be illuminating. Last week's Federal Open Market Committee event produced a third rate cut this year, three dissenting votes, and the

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate?

Sep 30, 2025 3 min read paid

In his post-FOMC press conference on September 17, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed policy remains tight notwithstanding the latest rate cut: “What we can say is this, that over the course of this year we've kept our policy at a restrictive level—and people have different views—but a clearly restrictive level, I would say.” In other words, monetary policy remains tight. How does he know

Ed Yardeni

Postpartum Impressions

Sep 18, 2025 3 min read

Please see Dr Ed's op-ed in today's Financial Times titled "Why it might be the time to repeal the Fed’s dual mandate: Should 3% be the US central bank's new inflation target?" As expected by everyone, the FOMC delivered a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) yesterday. There was only one dissenter among the FOMC's voting members.

Ed Yardeni

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