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DEEP DIVE: Inflation: The 1970s Again?
US Economy I: Raising Odds of a Recession a Tad
On July 31, Debbie and I lowered our odds of…
Deep Dive
44 posts
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DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Forward Earnings Remains On Recovery Road
The stock market rallied from Friday through Wednesday despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on…
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DEEP DIVE: Misleading Economic Indicators?
While we await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which is bound to impact the financial…
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DEEP DIVE: Here Are Five Bearish Arguments That Haven't Worked So Far
Let’s revisit our upbeat response to the most frequently cited reasons to be worried about a recession:
(1) Falling…
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DEEP DIVES: Inflation, Symmetry & Shockwaves
Inflation tends to be a symmetrical phenomenon. It tends to come down as quickly or as slowly as it went…
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DEEP DIVE: Quantum Leaps
Artificial Intelligence is just one of several technological innovations that are likely to drive the economy during the Roaring 2020s.…
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DEEP DIVE: The Worry List
Economists who are still forecasting a recession typically offer four reasons. First is the inversion of the yield curve. Second…
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DEEP DIVE: Baby Boomers Retiring With $75 Trillion In Net Worth
When the Fed started to raise interest rates aggressively last year, there was lots of speculation that it would cause…
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DEEP DIVE: All About S&P 500 Earnings
Earnings I: The Past
The Q1 earnings season is over, and the final numbers are in. They were better-than-expected results,…
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DEEP DIVE: Stocks Discounting Earnings Recovery
The stock market discounts earnings over the next 52 weeks. How do we know this? Most industry analysts provide earnings…
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DEEP DIVE: Bad & Good Breadth
Joe and I have recently observed that the S&P 500 has a breadth problem. This is a widely recognized…
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DEEP DIVE: Fiscal Policy - A Trillion Here, a Trillion There
We have been on Wall Street as economists and strategists for more than 40 years. Over that entire period, doomsters…
