Deep Dive

DEEP DIVE: Braking China

Jul 17, 2022 2 min read paid

China continues to watch its real estate market deflate and its Covid cases inflate, while worries about its banking system grow. No wonder the recent rally in Chinese shares came to an abrupt halt (Fig. 4). Here’s some news that caught our eye:

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Economy & Financial Markets - From Wrong to Right Track?

Jul 1, 2022 11 min read paid

Strategy I: On the Right Track. What could go right or wrong over the rest of this year? The year is half over. It has been an annus horribilis so far. Will it continue to be so during the second half of the year? Or will we see a gradual improvement that might set the stage for an annus mirabilis in 2023? The only investment strategies that have worked out

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: How's Business?

Jun 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing. Every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services.” The latest report was released on June 15 at 8:30 a.m. An hour and a half later every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales” report—for the previous month. In other words, on June 15, Census reported retail sales

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Revisiting Venus and Mars

Jun 21, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our June 21, 2022 Morning Briefing. Strategy I: Investors Are Still from Mars. Our May 18 Morning Briefing was titled “Analysts Are from Venus; Investors Are from Mars.” We wrote: “Stock market investors seem to believe that industry analysts are becoming increasingly delusional. The latter have been raising their revenues and earnings estimates since the start of the year, while the former have been cutting

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Bear Spray

May 29, 2022 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our May 23, 2022 Morning Briefing. Next week, my wife and I will be on vacation visiting the bears (and bison) at Yellowstone National Park and Grand Teton National Park. We will be carrying some bear spray, just in case. The National Park Service offers the following advice: “Bear spray is a non-lethal deterrent designed to stop aggressive behavior in bears. Its use can reduce

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed's Quantitative Tightening: Run(off) for the Hills?

May 19, 2022 6 min read paid

In recent conversations with our accounts, we have been hearing more concern about the second round of quantitative tightening (QT2), which starts next month.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: More on Inflation & Stocks

May 13, 2022 4 min read paid

Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market? I’ve recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led bear market while earnings continued to increase. Note: The following is an excerpt from a recent YRI Morning Briefing. The obvious answer is 1987. Our monthly Blue Angels framework, which starts in late 1978, shows that the S&P 500 dropped 33.5% from August 25, 1987 through December

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Boosts Earnings & Depresses Valuation

May 12, 2022 3 min read paid

Over the past year, inflation has been having a positive impact on analysts’ consensus forecasts for earnings in 2022 and 2023 but a negative impact on the valuation multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings estimates. Needless to say, the former positive effect has been trumped by the latter negative effect. The negative impact reflects the jump in bond yields so far, concerns that bond yields will

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Inflation Tends To Be Spikey

May 7, 2022 3 min read paid

Why is the 10-year Treasury bond yield only around 3.00% when the latest headline CPI and PCED inflation rates were 8.5% y/y and 6.6% y/y? Why would bond investors willingly lock in such a painful negative real return?

Ed Yardeni

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