Deep Dive

DEEP DIVE: Risks & Reward In 2025

Jan 11, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated January 6, 2025. Strategy I: What Could Go Right. We are biased by the stock market’s bullish bias. We tend to be permabulls because bear markets are infrequent and are usually relatively short compared to bull markets, which tend to last for some time. Since January 1978, the S&P 500 is up 66.6-fold (Fig. 3)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Inflation: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Dec 20, 2024 9 min read paid

💡This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research December 16, 2024 Morning Briefing. Inflation I: The Good In our Roaring 2020s scenario, a productivity growth boom boosts real GDP growth, keeps a lid on inflation, drives up real labor compensation, and widens profit margins. Last week’s Productivity and Costs report compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) mostly included revised data for Q3-2024, which mostly supported this upbeat

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Roaring 2020s Tour Deep In The Heart of Texas

Dec 14, 2024 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research December 9, 2024 Morning Briefing. Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” ended yesterday in Vancouver. The extraordinary singer started this sixth concert tour in Glendale, Arizona on March 17, 2023. The tour consisted of 149 shows spanning five continents. Two of my daughters enjoyed her show in Toronto last month. My “Roaring 2020s Tour” started in Dallas, Texas last Tuesday morning. That

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Does the Stock Market Have a Valuation Problem?

Dec 6, 2024 6 min read paid

Strategy I: Valuation & Growth. As we’ve seen over the past three years, stock investors don’t like recessions, not even the no-shows. There was much anxiety about an imminent recession from January 3, 2022 through October 12, 2022, as reflected by the 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 over that period. Over that period, industry analysts confirmed investors’ fears by lowering their consensus expectations for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Is Trump 2.0 Bullish Or Bearish?

Nov 27, 2024 8 min read paid

Trump 2.0 I: Lots of Moving Parts So far, it has been the Roaring 2020s for the US economy and US stock market. Real GDP is at a record high, and so is the S&P 500. That’s impressive considering that the global economy was hit by a pandemic at the start of the decade, there was a radical regime change from Trump 1.0 to the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Kennedy Cure For What Ails Healthcare

Nov 22, 2024 5 min read paid

President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert Kennedy Jr., known for challenging the safety of vaccines, to head Health and Human Services (HHS), a huge organization that encompasses an alphabet soup of agencies including the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Medicare and Medicaid, and the Office of the Surgeon General. Trump reportedly has asked Kennedy—whose presidential campaign

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Earnings In The Roaring 2020s

Nov 15, 2024 5 min read paid

Strategy I: Roaring Ahead In Sunday’s QuickTakes, Eric, Joe, and I raised our outlook for S&P 500 earnings as well as our price targets for the index. We did so because we believe that Trump 2.0 represents a major regime change from Biden 1.0 (or was that Obama 3.0?). The corporate tax rate will be lowered from 21% to 15%. Personal income from tips,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Ten Useless Macroeconomic Theories

Nov 1, 2024 6 min read

It’s difficult to count the number of mainstream macro theories that we’ve debunked over the past few years. Many long-used relationships and correlations have been upended by record monetary and fiscal stimulus during the pandemic, a wave of early retirements by Baby Boomers, and interest-rate hikes off ultralow levels. We’ve been busy shooting them down since early 2022. Taking great pains to keep it short, below is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Case for a Higher R-Star

Oct 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed officials indicated that the September 18 rate cut was likely to be followed by more cuts. They deemed that 5.25%-5.50% was too restrictive, which is why they cut it by 50bps to 4.75%-5.00%. That’s still restrictive, in their opinion. According to their September 18 Summary of Economic Projections, collectively they seem to be aiming to lower the federal funds rate to 2.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Why Aren't Consumers Happier?

Oct 19, 2024 6 min read

The Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate (measured as the yearly percent change in the CPI) (Fig. 4 below). It was 6.5% during September, well below its average since 1947 of 9.1% (Fig. 5 below). So misery is relatively low. On the other hand, the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which is inversely correlated with the Misery Index, was 68.9 during

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Widely Feared Phantom Recession Is Over

Oct 14, 2024 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our October 7, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written after the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. Pagliacci (Clowns, 1892) is an opera in a prologue and two acts with music and libretto by Ruggero Leoncavallo. The play tells the tragedy of a jealous husband and his wife in a commedia dell'arte theatre company. At

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: No Hard Feelings

Oct 6, 2024 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our September 30, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written before the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. ]Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart economists and strategists who tend to be bearish. We look to them for a thorough analysis of what could go wrong for the economy

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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