Deep Dive

DEEP DIVE: No Hard Feelings

Oct 6, 2024 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our September 30, 2024 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. It was written before the release of September's blowout employment report on Friday, October 4. US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. ]Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart economists and strategists who tend to be bearish. We look to them for a thorough analysis of what could go wrong for the economy

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: China Goes For Broke

Sep 27, 2024 5 min read paid

On Tuesday, China announced a raft of policies aimed at boosting the economy and encouraging consumption. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%. The central bank will also cut the amount of funds that lenders must hold in reserve by 0.5ppt, with more cuts expected later this year. And regulators will recapitalize China’s largest commercial banks;

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

DEEP DIVE: What Will The Fed Do?

Sep 13, 2024 4 min read paid

The financial markets have been expecting more cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) than Eric and I have all year so far. At the start of this year, the markets anticipated six to seven rate cuts in 2024 (Fig. 1 below). We expected two to three at most. The markets were more dovish on the rate outlook than we were because of investors’ widespread belief that the Fed would

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Disruptive Technologies Series: Optimus vs Figure 2.0

Aug 30, 2024 3 min read paid

Millions of humanoid robots, those that look and move like humans, could become regular fixtures in factories and homes, bringing down manufacturing costs, eliminating dreary and dangerous work, and launching humanity into an age of abundance, according to the CEOs of Tesla and Figure AI. Both companies have humanoid prototypes that look amazingly lifelike and are trained using artificial intelligence. Here’s a head-to-head comparison of these humanoid robots and

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Artificial Intelligence: The Good, the Bad & the Ugly

Aug 24, 2024 5 min read paid

Artificial Intelligence: Good vs Evil. There’s a lot of controversy over AI. The passion of those for and against its propagation is almost religious in nature, with zealots and heretics. The zealots believe that AI is a revolutionary technological innovation that will quickly transform our lives for the better, a good development for humanity. A few of these believers do concede that it has the potential to be evil,

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Record High Earnings Giving Stock Market A Lift

Aug 16, 2024 3 min read paid

There’s no sign of an imminent recession in the latest earnings reporting season. Joe notes that more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings for Q2. Collectively, S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) rose 10.9% y/y during the quarter to a record high of $60.19 (Fig. 1 below and Fig. 2 below). Here’s more related happy

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: The Fed Faces Some Challenges

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read paid

The financial markets and most economists seem to agree that the Fed’s next move will be to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps following the September 17-18 meeting of the FOMC. However, there is still a debate about whether restrictive monetary policy operates with a “long and variable” lag, thus requiring more rate cuts this year to avert a recession later this year or in 2025. If

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: A Positive Outlook For Q2 Earnings Reporting Season

Jul 12, 2024 4 min read paid

Joe has been tracking the quarterly earnings forecast for S&P 500 companies collectively each week since the series started in Q1-1994. The typical playbook: Industry analysts cut their estimates gradually until reality sets in during the final month of the quarter, when some companies warn of weaker results. The combination of falling forecasts for companies that have underperformed earlier expectations, steady forecasts for those holding good news close

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: AI Hype Is Hyper

Jul 4, 2024 3 min read paid

Determining when an investment trend has run its course is more of an art than a science. While we love the productivity-enhancing possibilities that artificial intelligence (AI) offers, the AI phenomenon has many of the hallmarks of an inflating bubble. There are big bucks chasing the AI dream. New kings of industry have been crowned. And the hyperbole is flowing. Let’s take a look at some of the warning

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Charging Bull

Jun 29, 2024 7 min read paid

Strategy I: Hoof Marks. Even the bulls are getting trampled by the bull market in stocks. Many investment strategists are scrambling to raise their targets for the S&P 500. At the end of 2022, we predicted that the index would increase 20% from 3839 to 4600 by the end of 2023. It got there by the end of July of that year. We stuck to our target as

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Winning Streaks Usually Don't Last Forever

Jun 21, 2024 10 min read paid

TAMED I: Technical Analysis Of Macro Economic Data. Over the past two years, the hard landers had innumerable theories and charts to explain why higher interest rates would undoubtedly plunge the economy into a recession. Now, the diehard hard landers are again insisting that their long-held recession call will be proven correct soon. Others among them say we’re already in a recession. So far, these forecasts have been wrong.

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

DEEP DIVE: Inflation - Why the Long Face?

Jun 14, 2024 3 min read paid

Among the hottest topics at dinner tables and at corporate boardrooms tables across the country—not to mention election campaign offices—is inflation. The topic of inflation has heated up along with inflation itself but doesn’t seem to be cooling off along with it. The US economy contended with its first significant bout of price pressures since the 1980s after pandemic stimulus measures boosted demand in the face of

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Page 4 of 11