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May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak
A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell…
Economic Survey
40 posts
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The Economic Week Ahead: May 30-June 2
Now that a debt deal is on the verge of becoming a done deal, the markets can focus on economic…
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A Dish of Mixed Nuts
Today's economic indicators show that the labor market remains tight, while manufacturing activity remains weak. That mix supports our soft-landing…
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Tale Of Two Surveys Of Purchasing Managers
Today's NM-PMI for February was happier than the month's M-PMI released on Wednesday. On balance, they confirm that consumers have…
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The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 13-17
Financial markets are likely to be action packed this week because the economic calendar is jampacked with key economic indicators…
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Surveys Say NY & Philly Manufacturing Weak
Stock prices tanked yesterday following reports showing sharp declines in December's retail sales and industrial production. As a result, the…
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Small Business Owners Say Job Market Cooling
December's NFIB survey of small business owners should make the Fed's hawks a bit less hawkish. They want to see…
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The Economic Week Ahead Jan. 9-13
The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season starts this week with the big money center banks. They are unlikely to surprise investors.…
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Regional Puzzle Pieces Showing Slowing Economy & Inflation
Almost everyone working on Wall Street is on vacation, except for the bears. They've been munching on stock prices, especially…
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CPI Inflation Peaked During June & Continues to Moderate
Stock prices soared this morning on November's better-than-expected inflation news, but gave back much of the gain as investors realized…
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Sweet & Sour
Today's release of November's Consumer Confidence Index showed that the labor market remains relatively tight. The percentage of respondents saying…
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Most Widely Anticipated Recession Ever
Our contrarian instincts give us more confidence in our “growth recession,” or “mid-cycle slowdown,” scenario. A recession next year would…
