Economic Survey

June's Swoons

Jun 23, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock market was hit by another June swoon today. Investors were unnerved by the outcome of last Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The committee participants were more hawkish than expected, according to their Dot Plot. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh abstained from providing his dot, but he came across as very hawkish during his presser, repeatedly stressing the importance of the Fed achieving price stability. Also weighing on AI-related

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market Highs Confirm US Economy Is A Winner

Apr 16, 2026 4 min read paid

The message from the stock market is clear: The US economy is passing another stress test. Both domestic and foreign investors have shifted their attention from the risks of military escalation in the Middle East back to the remarkably consistent resilience of the US economy. The results are all-time highs in equities and a fresh wave of buying by both domestic and foreign investors. Even Michael Burry is reportedly

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

'Summertime, And The Livin' Is Easy'

Jun 30, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market seems to be carefree. Investors likely figure that any signs of slower economic growth increase the odds that the Fed will ease. Plus, inflation remains remarkably subdued through May notwithstanding Trump's tariffs. June's CPI inflation rate is tracking around only 2.6% y/y according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. The dollar's weakness is viewed as boosting

Ed Yardeni

Another Growth Scare

Feb 27, 2025 3 min read

The stock market is in the midst of another growth scare, in our opinion. The latest batch of economic indicators has been weak. The current growth scare is reminiscent of last summer's scare. It is just as likely to pass if the next batch of economic indicators improves, as we expect. That still leaves policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0 to spook stock investors. We still expect that

Ed Yardeni

Not Too Cold, Not Too Hot

Jan 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Are Home Prices Just Too D@mn!#$ High?

Aug 28, 2024 2 min read paid

We were surprised to see the sharp drop in the percentage of survey respondents with plans to buy any home within the next six months in August's consumer confidence survey released on Tuesday (chart). After all, the 30-year mortgage rate declined from 7.79% at the end of October 2023 to 6.46% currently (chart). That's still relatively high, especially since the spread between this

Ed Yardeni

Confidence Survey Shows Jobs Are Still Relatively Plentiful

Jun 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The first available monthly indicator of the labor market is the "jobs plentiful" series in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey. Today, June's reading showed that 38.1% of respondents said so (chart). That's a slight uptick from May, and a relatively high reading. The "jobs hard to get response" ticked down to 14.1%, which is a very low reading. The

Ed Yardeni

Game Over For Birth/Death Adjustment?

Jun 11, 2024 2 min read paid

Some economists claim that recent nonfarm payroll gains are misleadingly strong and are masking the underlying weakness in the labor market. These die-hard hard-landers point to a wonky calculation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), i.e., the Birth/Death Adjustment (B/D). The B/D Adjustment attempts to account for job gains attributable to new businesses and job losses due to business closures that don'

Ed Yardeni

Will Depressed Small Business Owners Depress The Economy?

Apr 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Stocks marked time today, while bonds rallied after the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its March survey of small business owners this morning. It was a pessimistic report overall. The small business optimism index fell to the lowest reading since December 2012 (chart). Yet, the solid performance of the economy has been at odds with the mounting pessimism of small business owners since early 2022. The employment-related

Ed Yardeni

Short-Term Caution Signs

Jan 24, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to fresh record highs today. That's great. Not so great is that bullish sentiment remains high. The two bull/bear ratios we monitor remain elevated (chart). From a contrarian perspective, that's bearish. Today's put/call ratio was relatively low at 0.67 (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's bearish too. The price of

Ed Yardeni

The Promised Land

Jun 27, 2023 2 min read paid

The permabears will have to postpone their imminent recession yet again based on today's batch of US economic indicators, which suggests that our "rolling recession" is turning into a "rolling expansion." The housing market seems to be recovering nicely from its recession, which started early last year. The manufacturing sector is showing signs of bottoming, while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose to

Ed Yardeni

May's Regional Business Surveys Remained Weak

May 30, 2023 1 min read paid

A federal debt ceiling deal is in the works. The stock market yawned. The bond market rallied. Interest rates fell even though the deal would allow Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to issue lots of Treasuries to replenish her department's checking account. Perhaps the bond market responded to the Dallas Fed's May regional business survey released today, which was weak. So were the other four regional business

Ed Yardeni

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