Employment

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 2 - 6

Mar 1, 2026 3 min read

Nothing upends the economic game board like a sudden war few had in their bingo cards a week ago. Granted, the coordinated US-Israel attack on Iran over the weekend wasn’t a complete surprise. But the scale of the bombardment that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was impressive. Tehran’s wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks aimed at US bases and allies around the region, and threats to

Ed Yardeni

Is AI Frankenstein?

Feb 23, 2026 3 min read paid

The people who've created large language models (LLMs) to power artificial intelligence (AI) are now using them to code better LLMs. If LLMs are now so good at coding that they can create their own better versions, who needs coders anymore? Are the only jobs left in the software industry the ones for LLM prompters? In 5-10 short prompts, they have to tell the LLM what new software

Ed Yardeni

4724: The Year Of The Fire Horse

Feb 19, 2026 4 min read

Happy Lunar New Year! Last year was the Year of the Wood Snake, according to the Chinese Zodiac. In Chinese culture, the Snake is often seen as a symbol of wisdom, intuition, and transformation. The Horse is one of the most beloved zodiac signs. It is a powerful symbol of energy, freedom, and rapid success. Because the Horse is a social and high-spirited animal, its year is usually expected to

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Desperately Seeking AI Immunity ... January's Pleasant Jobs Surprise

Feb 11, 2026 4 min read paid

I. AI Immunity Is The New AI Trade After ChatGPT was released on November 30, 2022, investors scrambled to overweight the AI trade, mostly by overweighting the Magnificent-7 (chart). That worked out great until the DeepSeek surprise on January 20, 2025. The AI trade made a big comeback on April 9, 2025, when President Donald Trump postponed his "Liberation Day" tariffs, and after datacenter hyperscalers reiterated their commitment

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 9-13

Feb 8, 2026 3 min read

As the polar vortex generates arctic blasts around the US, things are about to heat up on the economic data front. The week ahead includes arguably the two most consequential releases with respect to the outlook for Federal Reserve policy—January's employment and CPI reports. Thanks to recent government shutdowns, the employment (Wed) and CPI (Fri) releases are unusually close together. The jobs report is especially important, as

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 2-6

Feb 1, 2026 3 min read

The week ahead has an anything-goes energy as a variety of key data and earnings reports vie for attention amid peak geopolitical intrigue. Last week left quite an impression on global markets. Trading in gold and silver went off the rails. "Dollar debasement" concerns competed with yen-intervention chatter. Donald Trump's White House kept everyone on their toes, hinting at military action in Iran and threatening new

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

Roaring Productivity Versus AI Bubble

Jan 8, 2026 2 min read

Relax: The AI bubble is the cover story in the latest BloombergBusinessweek (image). From a contrarian perspective, that's bullish because it signals that the bubble won't burst, if it even exists. We have AI Fatigue. We recently recommended underweighting the Magnificent-7 because their AI arms race is forcing them to spend heavily on AI infrastructure that could become obsolete quickly and that could be unprofitable as

Ed Yardeni

Two Long-Distance Runners: Forrest Gump & The US Economy

Jan 7, 2026 3 min read paid

In the movie “Forrest Gump,” Forrest is a long-distance runner. He crosses the United States five times before he finally decides he is "pretty tired" and stops. Forrest’s run lasted 3 years, 2 months, 14 days, and 16 hours. In the US, real GDP has been growing since the two-month pandemic lockdown recession ended in April 2020. So its run has lasted 5 years, 8 months, and

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 5–9

Jan 4, 2026 3 min read

With the holidays behind us, the first full trading week of the year is a busy one on the data front. The big focus, naturally, is on the December employment report. It's the first "full" release since the government shutdown caused data interruptions. It also marks a return to normalcy for investors eager to gauge how the Fed might proceed in the weeks ahead. Recent data

Ed Yardeni

CRIB SHEET: The New Year

Jan 1, 2026 4 min read paid

Happy 2026! It should be the seventh year of our Roaring 2020s scenario, with three more to go. We first wrote about this scenario on August 11, 2020, in our Morning Briefing titled "Another Roaring Twenties May Still Be Ahead." We predicted, "So far, the 2020s has started with the pandemic, but there are plenty of years left for the prosperous 1920s to become a precedent for

Ed Yardeni

Mistletoe Magic And The S&P 500 In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 3 min read

Mistletoe is relevant to several cultures. In the advent of the Christian era, mistletoe in the Western world became associated with Christmas as a decoration under which lovers are expected to kiss, as well as with protection from witches and demons. Let's hope its magic lasts into 2026 through next Christmas. The consensus among Wall Street investment strategists is that the magic will last. According to Bloomberg, their

Ed Yardeni

Misleading CPI, Misleading Business Surveys, Reliable Claims

Dec 18, 2025 2 min read

Now that the government shutdown is over, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is releasing economic indicators again. However, the quality of the latest releases is an issue. Today's lower-than-expected November CPI inflation report boosted stock and bond prices after its release. But the gains faded as economists started to question the CPI numbers. Indeed, the release included a warning that the government shutdown might have distorted the

Ed Yardeni

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