Employment

DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin's Among Economic Indicators

Oct 15, 2025 4 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 14 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. We are sharing it with our QuickTakes members today. It isn’t easy being an economist when the government shutdown shuts off the flow of economic data. Nevertheless, the Fed is still open for business and issuing economic releases. So are several private-sector sources of economic indicators. On balance, the data we do have suggest that

Ed Yardeni

Russell 2000 Is For Losers, But Is Currently Winning

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The Russell 2000 small-cap stock price index is outperforming the S&P 600, another small-cap index (chart). The former includes many more companies that are losing money than the latter. This is yet another sign of mounting speculative froth in financial markets in response to the Fed's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate on September 17. The S&P 600's requirement that companies

Ed Yardeni

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

Oct 1, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: "We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6 at an intraday low of 666. This is a number commonly associated with the Devil. . . . The latest relief rally was sparked by lots of good

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 29 - October 3

Sep 28, 2025 3 min read

Monthly employment reports have been suspenseful enough in recent months, but the real drama surrounding September's hotly anticipated figures is whether they will even be released on Friday. They won't be if the government shuts down on October 1 amid partisan bickering. Assuming the data come out, we expect them to show that the economy remains more buoyant than the conventional wisdom acknowledges given how surprised

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Message To The Fed: Repent, Oh Ye Of Little Faith

Sep 26, 2025 2 min read

The Fed just won't listen to us. Last year, we warned Fed officials not to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) because we had more confidence in the economy than they did. We also observed that inflation remained above their 2.0% inflation target. We predicted that the 10-year Treasury bond yield and mortgage rates would likely rise rather than fall if the Fed lowered the FFR. They

Ed Yardeni

Postpartum Impressions

Sep 18, 2025 3 min read

Please see Dr Ed's op-ed in today's Financial Times titled "Why it might be the time to repeal the Fed’s dual mandate: Should 3% be the US central bank's new inflation target?" As expected by everyone, the FOMC delivered a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) yesterday. There was only one dissenter among the FOMC's voting members.

Ed Yardeni

US Labor Market Is In Balance

Sep 5, 2025 3 min read

August's employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month's payrolls rose by just 22,000. June's number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July's number was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000. August's big losers were goods producers (-25,000), professional & business services (-17,000,

Ed Yardeni

Flocking Doves Tomorrow?

Sep 4, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow's employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC's majority will turn dovish and will vote to cut the federal funds rate on September 17. Indeed, the odds are up to 99.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Stock investors must

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 2 - 5

Sep 1, 2025 3 min read

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday's pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July's surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceeds with a rate cut at its September 16-17 policy meeting. The July jobs data

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

Aug 26, 2025 2 min read

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August's survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is above its average over time of 48.2%. That drop was matched by an uptick in the jobs-hard-to-get series to 20.0%. In our opinion, these stats

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 4-8

Aug 3, 2025 3 min read

Compared to last week’s dramatic data surprises, this week’s offerings are decidedly of the slim-pickings variety. But boring, the days ahead will not be. While we’re still of the thinking that President Donald Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair’s fate could be written between the lines of any data series that undershoots expectations. Following Friday’s weaker-than-expected July employment report, Trump wasted

Ed Yardeni

Let The Games Begin!

Jul 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Tomorrow will be action-packed. Wednesday morning, the US Treasury will issue its Quarterly Refunding Statement detailing how it intends to finance $1.0 trillion in marketable securities during Q3. The question is whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will rely more on doing so in the Treasury bill market, as recently suggested by President Donald Trump. Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC will issue a press release at 2:00 p.m., most

Ed Yardeni

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