Employment

CRIB SHEET: The New Year

Jan 1, 2026 4 min read paid

Happy 2026! It should be the seventh year of our Roaring 2020s scenario, with three more to go. We first wrote about this scenario on August 11, 2020, in our Morning Briefing titled "Another Roaring Twenties May Still Be Ahead." We predicted, "So far, the 2020s has started with the pandemic, but there are plenty of years left for the prosperous 1920s to become a precedent for

Ed Yardeni

Mistletoe Magic And The S&P 500 In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 3 min read

Mistletoe is relevant to several cultures. In the advent of the Christian era, mistletoe in the Western world became associated with Christmas as a decoration under which lovers are expected to kiss, as well as with protection from witches and demons. Let's hope its magic lasts into 2026 through next Christmas. The consensus among Wall Street investment strategists is that the magic will last. According to Bloomberg, their

Ed Yardeni

Misleading CPI, Misleading Business Surveys, Reliable Claims

Dec 18, 2025 2 min read

Now that the government shutdown is over, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is releasing economic indicators again. However, the quality of the latest releases is an issue. Today's lower-than-expected November CPI inflation report boosted stock and bond prices after its release. But the gains faded as economists started to question the CPI numbers. Indeed, the release included a warning that the government shutdown might have distorted the

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Remains On Growth Track

Dec 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy is growing despite anemic payroll employment gains. That can only happen if productivity growth accelerates and raises real wages enough to offset the weakness in employment. The question is whether productivity growth will continue to do so. It will in our Roaring 2020s scenario. The risk is that stronger real wages don't more than offset weaker employment, which would depress personal income and consumption. This is

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 15–19

Dec 14, 2025 3 min read

This week is loaded with long-delayed government data releases, including on employment and inflation, which will provide a reality check on the economy's performance in the final weeks of 2025. This week's earnings reports from FedEx, General Mills, Carnival, and Jabil could also be illuminating. Last week's Federal Open Market Committee event produced a third rate cut this year, three dissenting votes, and the

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

AI CALL: The TIME Curse & The Game of Thrones

Dec 11, 2025 3 min read paid

"The Architects of AI" are this year's TIME Person of the Year. We asked Google's Gemini, "Can you list when the front cover of TIME featuring Person of the Year has turned out to be a curse?" Gemini responded as follows: "While TIME Magazine maintains that "Person of the Year" is a measure of influence (for better or worse)

Ed Yardeni

CODE RED: Altman's Existential Crisis & Trump's Affordability Crisis

Dec 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has lost its mojo recently. The S&P 500 has been hovering around 6800 since late November. It did recover nicely from a November 20 low of 6538. But the rebound since then has failed to lift the index above the October 29 record high of 6890. It may break out above that high after the FOMC’s December 9-10 meeting if the Fed delivers the

Ed Yardeni

Cornucopia of Data

Nov 27, 2025 4 min read

We are thankful for your interest in our research. Happy Thanksgiving! Now that the government shutdown is over, there is plenty of data again with which to assess the economy's performance. On balance, GDP growth remains robust despite lackluster labor market indicators. Consumers are consuming. Inflation is subdued just below 3.0%. The federal deficit remains enormous. Federal tax receipts confirm the economy is growing. Nevertheless, the Fed,

Ed Yardeni

To Bail Or Not To Bail?

Nov 20, 2025 4 min read

Good news bears were on the loose today. It was a risk-off day in financial markets despite strong earnings and economic news. Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q3 results yesterday after the market closed. This morning, we learned that payroll employment rose more than expected in September and that initial unemployment claims remained subdued last week. Nevertheless, it was a bad day for stock investors. The stock market pullback that we expected

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 17-21

Nov 16, 2025 2 min read

The week ahead is a pivotal one for market participants seeking some clarity on US growth and the likelihood of another Fed rate cut. Now that the longest-ever government shutdown is over, investors will finally get a look at the September employment report. While stale at this point, the report should provide some insight into labor market conditions. A flurry of public speaking events by Fed officials will reveal whether

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

Challenging The Challenger Report

Nov 6, 2025 3 min read

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell this morning on news that layoffs rose sharply, according to the Challenger Report, which was titled "JOB CUTS SURPASS 1 MILLION; HIGHEST OCTOBER TOTAL SINCE 2003. COMPANIES CITE COST-CUTTING, AI IN OCTOBER." That headline is somewhat sensational. It refers to the past 12 months through October. The actual number of layoffs during the month was 153,074, as the report notes

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 3-7

Nov 2, 2025 2 min read

A big week of economic releases is coming up, but the government won’t be reporting them because it is closed for business. Nevertheless, the week ahead will still be a big one for private-sector economic data. On balance, they are likely to show that the economy is expanding, consumers are spending, and employment is still growing, albeit at a slow pace. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. The weekly

Ed Yardeni

Page 1 of 10