Employment

A Goldilocks Jobs Report Just In Time For Labor Day

Sep 4, 2026 4 min read

The August US jobs report is among the best we have seen in some time and provided an uplifting backdrop for the Labor Day weekend. Labor demand is solid and becoming more broad-based, unemployment remains low, and labor supply improved in August. At the same time, moderate wage growth and solid productivity gains show that inflationary pressures are subdued in the labor market. In other words, the report reinforces

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 3-7

Aug 2, 2026 4 min read

After a week dominated by the Fed news, Q2's GDP release, and four Mag-7 earnings reports, the week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data, capped by Friday's employment report. Fedspeak resumes as well, with Governor Lisa Cook and SF Fed Bank President Mary Daly both speaking on Wednesday. They were not among the three hawkish dissenters at last week's FOMC meeting.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17

Jul 11, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7% last week. The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out fresh airstrikes Wednesday night

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 1, 2026 4 min read paid

The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 29 - July 3

Jun 28, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,354.02, down 2.0% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Apple and Microsoft raised their consumer product prices on Thursday, citing memory and storage chip costs that have more than doubled since last fall and are expected to double again by late 2027. The driver is demand for DRAM and NAND from AI data centers. Memory chip

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Geopolitical Release Valve Taking Pressure Off Resilient Economy

Jun 19, 2026 4 min read

The US-Iran interim peace deal is shaky; but if it holds, it will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Now comes a 60-day negotiating period to hammer out a permanent agreement, centered on restricting Iran's nuclear program. The price of Brent crude oil extended its sharp decline following the peace deal announcement, with markets pricing in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate

Jun 17, 2026 5 min read

During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above the "neutral" FFR. Under the Fed's dual mandate, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 27-May 1

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Wednesday brings the advance Q1-2025 GDP report, and Thursday the March PCED, which will show how much of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stocks: Was That The Bottom On Monday?

Apr 2, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday's strong equity rally was triggered by reports that the US had found an exit ramp from its war with Iran. Wednesday night, President Donald Trump confirmed that the US would exit in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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