Employment

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 3-7

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

Aside from plenty of news about tariffs, the economic week ahead is jampacked with economic indicators that might be affected by tariffs in coming months. Capped off by January's monthly employment report on Friday, the week will also include releases on manufacturing, worker productivity, and bank lending. We're expecting more strong employment data this week, consistent with our overall bullish outlook for the US economy. The

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of labor market indicators for November and December. We're expecting them to beat expectations. As long as corporate earnings continue to reach new record highs, companies are likely to hire more workers and increase real wages (chart). Ultimately, that supports consumer spending and stock prices. Still, there are a number of potential headwinds for stocks, not the least of which is rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale will be November's employment report on Friday. We are expecting this week's indicators to beat expectations, boosting the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and sending yields a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Going Nowhere Fast?

Oct 30, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has stopped broadening since the Fed's rate cut! Why is that given that the current earnings season has been mostly upbeat? The problem is that the bond yield

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 28 - Nov 1

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with key indicators for the labor market, economic growth, and inflation, as well as more Q3 S&P 500 earnings. The first estimate of Q3 GDP will be followed by the September PCED inflation rate and October payroll employment. We're expecting continued strong growth and disinflation, though we anticipate that employment was muddled by one-time factors and that some components of the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Big Employment Increase Puts Recession Story to Bed

Oct 4, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's payroll employment report for September and upward revisions for July and August were much stronger than the consensus expected. We weren't surprised. They should bury the looming recession scenario. Stock futures immediately surged, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bps to 3.95%, and the dollar moved higher. As we previously observed, the Fed's 50bps cut in the federal funds rate on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. The Fed started a new monetary easing cycle on September 18, cutting the federal funds rate by 50bps. The question now is how hard will it press on the gas pedal? Given last week's cooler-than-expected inflation print, the Fed will most likely retain its bias for easier monetary policy unless the labor market data are surprisingly strong. The consensus currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Employers Are Not Hiring Or Firing. Productivity May Be the Reason.

Sep 6, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Great Normalization

Sep 5, 2024 3 min read paid

Oops: Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We speculated that a leak of that information might have caused Tuesday's selloff. On Wednesday after the close, Nvidia denied that it had received a DOJ subpoena. Go figure! Today's economic data were consistent with our short-term thesis (i.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Don't Sweat Tomorrow's Payroll Revisions

Aug 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended March 2024. These data are used to revise previous payroll employment reports. They come with a lag, but are generally accepted to be more accurate than the initial monthly releases, which were already revised twice. The initial 12-month revisions can be large, recently having swung by more than

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Beryling Toward Rate Cuts

Aug 2, 2024 2 min read

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here's the market action as of midday: * The Nasdaq officially entered a correction, down more than 10% from its record high reached roughly a month ago. * The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) popped to 29, which hasn’t been seen since

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Rotating Market Betting On Pivoting Powell

Jul 30, 2024 3 min read paid

This is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say at his presser tomorrow: "The economy has been stronger than we expected and the labor market remains solid. Inflation is getting closer to our 2.0% target, but it isn't there yet. We didn't cut the federal funds rate at this meeting of the FOMC, but we might do so at the September 17-18

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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