Employment

Not Much Stagflation Today

May 15, 2025 4 min read

Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he and President Donald Trump were focusing on the 10-year Treasury bond yield as a key metric for economic health, rather than the Fed's short-term interest rate. He stated, "He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," indicating a strategy to manage borrowing costs through fiscal policy rather than pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 28–May 2

Apr 27, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic updates. The headliners will be Q1's GDP and March's personal income and expenditures (both Wed) as well as April's payroll employment (Fri). We're expecting relatively strong employment data, which should highlight the US economy's resilience notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The week's inflation indicators likely remained subdued, although tariff-related

Ed Yardeni

LIBERATION WEEK: March 31-April 4

Mar 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump's Reign of Tariffs will likely dominate the economic week ahead. The big event will occur on April 2 (dubbed "Liberation Day" by President Donald Trump). That's when the administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a number of America's trading partners. However, it's very likely that tariff announcements will continue after that date, as bilateral negotiations are teased out and

Ed Yardeni

Layoffs Rising According To Challenger Report. Is That Alarming?

Mar 6, 2025 2 min read paid

We raised the odds of a recession on March 4 from 20% to 35%. Today's Challenger Report showed an alarming jump in February's announced job layoffs to 172,017, the highest since July 2020 (chart). On the other hand, initial unemployment claims remained low through the February 28 week. So we aren't raising our odds of a recession again, for now. A third of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Economic Growth Seems To Be Picking Up

Feb 10, 2025 3 min read paid

Bearish stock market narratives have been pervasive since early 2022. They are becoming more so now with each headline coming out of Washington. Duties, deportations, duties, and de-bureaucratization (the four "Ds") can have a shock-and-awe effect. But financial markets broadly have been unperturbed because the US economy continues to be rock solid. Then again, reining in the budget deficit and trade deficit is no easy task. President Donald

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 3-7

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

Aside from plenty of news about tariffs, the economic week ahead is jampacked with economic indicators that might be affected by tariffs in coming months. Capped off by January's monthly employment report on Friday, the week will also include releases on manufacturing, worker productivity, and bank lending. We're expecting more strong employment data this week, consistent with our overall bullish outlook for the US economy. The

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of labor market indicators for November and December. We're expecting them to beat expectations. As long as corporate earnings continue to reach new record highs, companies are likely to hire more workers and increase real wages (chart). Ultimately, that supports consumer spending and stock prices. Still, there are a number of potential headwinds for stocks, not the least of which is rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale will be November's employment report on Friday. We are expecting this week's indicators to beat expectations, boosting the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and sending yields a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Going Nowhere Fast?

Oct 30, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has stopped broadening since the Fed's rate cut! Why is that given that the current earnings season has been mostly upbeat? The problem is that the bond yield

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 28 - Nov 1

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with key indicators for the labor market, economic growth, and inflation, as well as more Q3 S&P 500 earnings. The first estimate of Q3 GDP will be followed by the September PCED inflation rate and October payroll employment. We're expecting continued strong growth and disinflation, though we anticipate that employment was muddled by one-time factors and that some components of the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Big Employment Increase Puts Recession Story to Bed

Oct 4, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's payroll employment report for September and upward revisions for July and August were much stronger than the consensus expected. We weren't surprised. They should bury the looming recession scenario. Stock futures immediately surged, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bps to 3.95%, and the dollar moved higher. As we previously observed, the Fed's 50bps cut in the federal funds rate on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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