Employment

The Recession Claim

May 9, 2024 2 min read

One of our competitors claims that we are in a recession. Another claims that we will soon be in a recession. The most widely anticipated recession of all times is turning into the longest widely anticipated recession of all times. One day, the diehard hard-landers will be right. Was today the day? We're sure that their heartbeats quickened on today's jobless claims report. Consider the following:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Says No Stag, No Flation.

May 1, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wasn't dovish at his presser today. But he wasn't hawkish either. He said, "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike." The 2-year Treasury yield fell back below 5.00% to 4.98%, consistent with one 25bps cut in the federal funds rate over the next twelve months. The S&P

Ed Yardeni

Look For The Union Label In Latest ECI Inflation Rate

Apr 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q1 was another hotter-than-expect inflation report. It came out just as the FOMC started its latest meeting to discuss monetary policy. It increases the odds that Fed officials will sound more hawkish starting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his presser tomorrow following the meeting. Stocks sold off hard as the 2-year Treasury note yield rose back above 5.00% to 5.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 29 - May 3

Apr 28, 2024 2 min read paid

This could be another action packed week as the Fed's meeting and the latest S&P 500 earnings reporting season take center stage. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference on Wednesday after the latest FOMC meeting adjourns. He is likely to reiterate that the FOMC is in no rush to lower interest rates, and isn't considering raising them either. That won'

Ed Yardeni

Monetary Policy Is In A 'Good Place'

Apr 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Will Depressed Small Business Owners Depress The Economy?

Apr 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Stocks marked time today, while bonds rallied after the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its March survey of small business owners this morning. It was a pessimistic report overall. The small business optimism index fell to the lowest reading since December 2012 (chart). Yet, the solid performance of the economy has been at odds with the mounting pessimism of small business owners since early 2022. The employment-related series

Ed Yardeni

More Bumps Ahead?

Apr 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has often said that the road toward lowering inflation down to the Fed's 2.0% target is likely to be bumpy. Nevertheless, there has been no turbulence in the stock market's smooth ascent to new record highs since October 27, 2023, which marked the end of a 10.3% correction in the bull market that started October 12, 2022 (chart). Nevertheless, we

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 1 - 5

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

The first week of the month is always jampacked with economic indicators. In addition, at least one member of the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be speaking every day. The economic indicators should confirm that the economy remains resilient in the face of pockets of weakness (a.k.a., rolling recessions). For starters, we'll see if the ISM's March M-PMI (Mon) confirms the weakness in the

Ed Yardeni

Sweet Economic Indicators

Mar 28, 2024 2 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators was mostly sweet. Q4's real GDP was revised from 3.2% to 3.4% (chart). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is projecting 2.1% for Q1-2024. Consumer spending was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3% despite fears that it would be depressed by the resumption of student loan payments. We disputed that notion by observing that real wages and

Ed Yardeni

The Man With The Midas Touch

Mar 26, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Mar 6, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very reassuring during his congressional testimony today. He said the economy is fine, inflation is moderating, and interest rates have probably peaked. He also said the Fed is likely to lower interest rates, but won't rush to do so: "We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 4 - 8

Mar 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. We expect that January's JOLTS report (Wed) and February's employment report (Fri) will confirm that the labor market remains strong. That's based on weekly initial unemployment claims remaining just north of 200,000 in recent weeks and February's consumer confidence survey showing that 41.3% of respondents agreed that jobs are plentiful (chart). Bad

Ed Yardeni

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