Employment

Inflation Scare

Feb 13, 2024 2 min read paid

Today, January's CPI inflation rate was slightly higher than expected. But the upside surprise was enough to convince investors and traders that the Fed is less likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) soon or by as much as they expected over the next 12 months. The 12-month federal FFR futures rose to 4.44% today, up from 3.74% on January 15 (chart). That amounts to

Ed Yardeni

Happy Groundhog Day!

Feb 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, woke up this morning and did not see his shadow, calling for an early spring. In the 1979 comedy movie classic, "Being There," Chauncey Gardner, played by Peter Sellers, predicted: "Yes! There will be growth in the spring!" There has been growth in the winter too. Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1's growth was

Ed Yardeni

Help (Still) Wanted

Jan 30, 2024 2 min read

The job market remains strong. That was the message from a couple of labor market indicators today. The most timely was January's consumer confidence survey. The series for "jobs hard to get" dropped to 9.8% of respondents, almost a record-low reading (chart). This suggests that the unemployment rate remained below 4.0% this month. The survey's "jobs plentiful" series jumped to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 29 - February 2

Jan 28, 2024 2 min read paid

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell conducting a press conference Wednesday afternoon. We expect no change in the federal funds rate. Powell is likely to push back against the market's expectations of sooner-rather-than-later rate cuts by observing that financial conditions have eased and the economy is stronger than expected, thanks in part to productivity. The first week of each month tends to be

Ed Yardeni

Hot Chips

Jan 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

This Week: January 8 - 12

Jan 10, 2024 2 min read

The second week of the month tends to be light on economic releases compared to the other weeks of the month. However, it usually includes the CPI. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting is projecting that tomorrow's headline and core CPI inflation rates for December will both be up 0.3% m/m. We are thinking that the headline might be closer to zero given that gasoline prices continued

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: What Should We Root For?

Jan 7, 2024 2 min read

Both the bond and stock markets didn't do much on Friday following the release of December's employment report and NM-PMI. The former looked better-than-expected at first, but not as strong in the details (and downward revisions of the previous two months), and wage inflation was higher than expected. The NM-PMI was weaker than expected led by an unbelievable (literally) drop in its employment sub-index down to

Ed Yardeni

What's Next?

Jan 4, 2024 2 min read paid

Rollercoaster rides are unnerving on the way up and then thrilling on the way down. Stock markets are thrilling on the way up and unnerving on the way down. The market had a thrilling meltup late last year and a slightly unnerving selloff during the first three days of the new year. Last year's yearend rally has fizzled so far this year. That's mostly because investors

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 2–5

Jan 1, 2024 2 min read paid

We made it through another year of living dangerously: 2024 is here! The first week of the new year is unlikely to bring any surprises on the economic front. Most of the indicators will provide insights into the labor market and consumer spending on autos and houses: (1) November's JOLTS report (Tue) should confirm that there are still more job openings than unemployed workers. We know that from

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 4 - 8

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Cooling

Nov 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Stocks rallied today as October's PCED inflation rate continued to moderate. Most importantly, the inflation rate of PCED services excluding energy and housing is falling. It has been stuck around 5.0% in 2022 and earlier this year. But it was down to 3.9% y/y in October (chart). Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said that they are concerned about the stickiness of this

Ed Yardeni

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