Fed

MARKET CALL: Fly Us To The Moon

Oct 25, 2025 4 min read

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the bearish alternative scenario at 20%. In our base-case scenario, the S&P 500 stock price index rises to 7000 by the end of this year and 7700 by

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13 - 17

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it's perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won't be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies engage in a trade war. The impact of the 130% tariff that President Donald Trump threatens to impose on China, effective November 1,

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6 - 10

Oct 5, 2025 3 min read

This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who are undecided about the need to vote for a rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. This week will offer investors insights into the internal dynamics of the September

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate?

Sep 30, 2025 3 min read paid

In his post-FOMC press conference on September 17, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that Fed policy remains tight notwithstanding the latest rate cut: “What we can say is this, that over the course of this year we've kept our policy at a restrictive level—and people have different views—but a clearly restrictive level, I would say.” In other words, monetary policy remains tight. How does he

Ed Yardeni

Message To The Fed: Repent, Oh Ye Of Little Faith

Sep 26, 2025 2 min read

The Fed just won't listen to us. Last year, we warned Fed officials not to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) because we had more confidence in the economy than they did. We also observed that inflation remained above their 2.0% inflation target. We predicted that the 10-year Treasury bond yield and mortgage rates would likely rise rather than fall if the Fed lowered the FFR.

Ed Yardeni

Powell's Irrational Exuberance Moment

Sep 23, 2025 2 min read

During a speech in Providence, Rhode Island today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked whether he and his colleagues give any weight to the impact of their monetary policies on financial markets. He responded: "We do look at overall financial conditions, and we ask ourselves whether our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that is what we're trying to achieve.” Then he opined that "

Ed Yardeni

Postpartum Impressions

Sep 18, 2025 3 min read

Please see Dr Ed's op-ed in today's Financial Times titled "Why it might be the time to repeal the Fed’s dual mandate: Should 3% be the US central bank's new inflation target?" As expected by everyone, the FOMC delivered a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) yesterday. There was only one dissenter among the FOMC's voting

Ed Yardeni

Fed Cuts By 25 Basis Points, Ho-Hum

Sep 17, 2025 2 min read

Why didn't stock prices rise today? Why didn't the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fall below 4.00%? Why did the price of gold slip? The financial markets had clearly already fully discounted today's 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate. In addition, the FOMC's Dot Plot wasn't as dovish as some market participants might have expected.

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 15 - 19

Sep 14, 2025 3 min read

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the Bank of Canada (Wed), the Bank of England (Thu), and the Bank of Japan (Fri) may reveal much about the degree to which US tariffs are disrupting

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Sep 11, 2025 3 min read members

Following yesterday's cooler-than-expected PPI and today's as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenting votes among voting members. Following today's jump in last week's initial unemployment claims, meeting participants might consider a 50-basis-point cut, but we doubt that they will opt for

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: What Could Possibly Go Wrong In September?

Aug 30, 2025 4 min read

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies. So, might the latest top in the S&P 500 have

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 25-29

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn't a done deal, no matter what Powell hinted at last Friday at Jackson Hole. A lot can happen in a few weeks. Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets September 16-17, policymakers will see

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

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