Forward Earnings

FEMO Lifting Economic Growth & Foreigners Lifting US Stocks

Jun 22, 2026 4 min read paid

In the spectrum of bullish stock markets, there are two polar opposites. The first is driven by FOMO, the Fear of Missing Out, which inflates P/E multiples as investors chase hope and hype rather than fundamentals, creating the conditions for a bubble. The second is driven by FEMO, or Fabulous Earnings Momentum, which works the other way around: Corporate earnings grow faster than stock prices, compressing P/E multiples

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: The Tug Of War Between P/E And E

Apr 5, 2026 5 min read paid

Last Monday saw the S&P 500 down 9.1% from its January 27 high, which we believe marks the trough of the latest pullback, for now. That was our call on Tuesday. The next two days could make or break our call. Today, President Donald Trump issued a final, profanely worded ultimatum, setting a firm deadline for what he is calling "Power Plant Day." He specified

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US Economy & Earnings Ended 2025 Very Strongly

Jan 14, 2026 3 min read paid

Oil prices fell more than 1% today after President Donald Trump signaled he might not attack Iran. Late in the day, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that "we've been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It's stopped. It's stopping, and there's no plan for executions." The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was down

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Earnings Powering The Bull Market

Jan 11, 2026 3 min read paid

The Q4-2025 earnings reporting season starts with the big banks this week. They are likely to deliver solid earnings, as loan demand is growing, net interest margins are widening, loan losses are manageable, and investment banking is booming. Other S&P 500 industries are also likely to deliver very good results. Indeed, we expect S&P 500 companies’ aggregate revenues per share, earnings per share, and profit

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Santa's Rally

Nov 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Santa's back. During the past week, the S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost the week before when it was knocked down hard by the plunge in bitcoin and by fears that the AI bubble-bursting story was true, just as the AI bubble storytellers have been warning. Here is the story we told in a QuickTakes on November 23: "Once their panic selling

Ed Yardeni

Lots Of News

Sep 9, 2025 4 min read paid

There was a lot of news today that, on balance, didn't move the needle much in the financial markets, which are marking time until August's PPI and CPI reports are released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Let's review all the non-events today: (1) Gold & geopolitics. The nearby futures price of gold jumped to yet another record high of $3,707 per ounce

Ed Yardeni

Is the Bull Market In Stocks Finally Broadening?

Aug 25, 2025 3 min read

The Magnificent-7 stocks have been leading the charge of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. They are all in the Nasdaq 100, which is up 117.9% so far since the start of the bull market, beating all the other major US stock market indexes (chart). The Mag-7's market capitalization share of the S&P 500 has doubled during the current

Ed Yardeni

Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?

Mar 4, 2025 3 min read paid

We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be stronger in February and March, as we've discussed in recent days. However, Trump's tariffs imposed today on Canada, China, and Mexico could have stagflationary consequences

Ed Yardeni

Economic Growth Seems To Be Picking Up

Feb 10, 2025 3 min read paid

Bearish stock market narratives have been pervasive since early 2022. They are becoming more so now with each headline coming out of Washington. Duties, deportations, duties, and de-bureaucratization (the four "Ds") can have a shock-and-awe effect. But financial markets broadly have been unperturbed because the US economy continues to be rock solid. Then again, reining in the budget deficit and trade deficit is no easy

Ed Yardeni

Still Betting on US Consumers

Dec 17, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer spending rose again in November, with real retail sales rising more than 3.0% y/y (chart). Rising real labor and nonlabor incomes, plus a strong wealth effect from record highs in stock and home prices, have boosted spending for the past two years. The GOP election sweep also means the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will likely be extended in full, and there's talk in

Ed Yardeni

An Earnings-Led Meltup For Stocks?

Nov 19, 2024 3 min read paid

We are often asked if the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That's a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are the main worry for many investors (chart). However, our bullish outlook for strong productivity-led economic growth means that earnings rather than valuations can lead the market higher. Coupled

Ed Yardeni

Small, Medium, and Large Cap Stocks

Nov 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The rally in the S&P 1500 has certainly broadened in recent weeks as the Fed started to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 and again on November 7 by 25bps. The S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps have been rising in record high territory in recent weeks along with the S&P 500 which has been rising

Ed Yardeni

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