Geopolitics

Market Call: $100 Oil, $3000 Gold?

Apr 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the current decade turn out to be like the 1920s, 1970s, or 1990s? We are still assigning subjective probabilities of 60% to the Roaring 2020s (like the 1920s), 20% to a bout of irrational exuberance (like the late 1990s), and 20% to a second peak in inflation (as occurred during the 1970s). We might have to increase the odds of a 1970s-like scenario if the price of oil continues

Stephen Rybka

Loose Houthis Can Sink Ships

Jan 16, 2024 2 min read

Chevron CEO Michael Wirth warned yesterday in a CNBC interview that the Red Sea crisis could disrupt oil supplies and quickly push oil prices higher: "So much of the world's oil flows through that region that were it to be cut off, I think you could see things change very rapidly," he said. So what did the price of oil do today? It edged down (chart)

Ed Yardeni

There's Always Something To Worry About

Jan 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock and bond markets are marking time. They might continue to do so during the first half of this year. The stock market should resume its advance during the second half of the year. The 10-year bond yield may continue to hover around 4.00% +/- 25bps this year. Here are the major issues hanging over the markets currently: (1) Inflation. December's CPI release showed a slight

Ed Yardeni

Is Everybody (Too) Happy?

Dec 20, 2023 3 min read

Everybody in the stock market (at least everybody with long positions, which includes most investors) has been happy since the S&P 500 bottomed on October 27—until it stumbled a bit today. The market was up in the morning despite a dive by FedEx shares. But stock prices tumbled during a late afternoon selloff. Most pundits concluded that the market was overbought and due for a correction. We

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Monitoring Geopolitical Risk In the Middle East

Dec 3, 2023 2 min read paid

The Santa Claus rally is about to be tested again by the prospects of a regional war in the Middle East. The Gaza War started on October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel. Yet both bond and stock prices have rallied since late October as investors bet that it would stay localized. So far, it has. Indeed, even the price of a barrel of brent crude oil has declined since then

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Latest Mideast War Raises Geopolitical Risks

Oct 7, 2023 2 min read paid

Hamas launched a coordinated surprise attack on Israel today. The timing suggests that Iran's mullahs instigated their surrogates in Gaza, hoping to disrupt the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel will undoubtedly launch a massive counter0ffensive. The question is whether Hezbollah will open up a second front on Israel's north. Geopolitical crises in the Middle East have usually caused oil prices to rise and

Ed Yardeni