Gold

Bond Yields Do A Backflip On CPI & PPI, Stocks Rally On Tariff News

Feb 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped by 10bps on Wednesday's hotter-than-expected January CPI report (chart). In his congressional testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has more work to do to get inflation down. Today, the bond yield fell 10bps on a hotter-than expected January PPI report and an upward revision in December's PPI. Huh? You read that right. Some of the

Ed Yardeni

Bessent Follows Yellen’s Lead & Gold Price Rises To New High

Feb 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The bond market relaxed today after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's debut Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) proved to be a non-event. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9bps to 4.43%, its lowest level since the Federal Reserve's last rate cut, in mid-December (chart). Bessent had been critical of Janet Yellen's usage of short-term Treasury bills to finance the federal budget deficit. Many investors, therefore, were

Ed Yardeni

Fed's Dovish Pause Boosts Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his press conference yesterday was that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, but the Fed still intends to lower them over time. So it's a dovish pause. That boosted stock, gold, and bitcoin prices today. Meanwhile, Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained relatively low this past week. It was released yesterday morning before Powell'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Trend Spotting

Nov 3, 2024 3 min read

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph's analysis often confirmed Ed's fundamental analysis. So in our spare time we like to follow the charts for clues about the future, and we occasionally spot trends that seem to support our forecasts. Currently, we are focusing on

Ed Yardeni

Geopolitical Risks Abound

Aug 26, 2024 3 min read

The world is getting more dangerous. That doesn't seem to be having any impact on the US stock market. The S&P 500 is less than 1% below its July 16 record high, while the equal-weighted version of the index is at a record high (chart). The biggest risk to the bull market in stocks is a recession, according to most strategists. We don't share

Ed Yardeni

Bonds, Oil, Copper, Gold & The Dollar

Jun 10, 2024 3 min read

On a regular basis, we like to check on the correlations among the fixed income, commodity, and foreign currency markets. Here are a few of our observations: (1) Bonds. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has normalized, fluctuating in a range roughly between 4.00% and 5.00% (chart). That's where it traded for a few years prior to the Great Financial Crisis. The same can be said

Ed Yardeni

The Spreading War In The Middle East

Apr 12, 2024 3 min read

Ever since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, we've warned that the latest war in the Middle East between these arch enemies could be protracted and spread to the rest of the region. On October 10, we wrote: "This one isn’t likely to lead to a quick ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as occurred in the past, because it is in fact a war between

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: $100 Oil, $3000 Gold?

Apr 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the current decade turn out to be like the 1920s, 1970s, or 1990s? We are still assigning subjective probabilities of 60% to the Roaring 2020s (like the 1920s), 20% to a bout of irrational exuberance (like the late 1990s), and 20% to a second peak in inflation (as occurred during the 1970s). We might have to increase the odds of a 1970s-like scenario if the price of oil continues

Stephen Rybka

Why Is Gold Shining Again?

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read

Gold is a commodity priced in dollars. Like other commodities priced in dollars, the gold price is inversely correlated with the trade-weighted dollar (chart). The former has been rebounding since late last year as the dollar has been weakening on expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. The price of gold tends to track the underlying trend in commodity prices (chart). So its recent rebound suggests that

Ed Yardeni

Gold Losing Its Shine

Jul 9, 2022 1 min read

Gold hasn't been a good hedge against inflation over the past highly inflationary year. That's not surprising since this precious metal's price is inversely correlated with the 10-year TIPS yield and with the trade-weighted dollar (charts below): (1) The TIPS yield fell to a record low of -1.19% on November 9, 2021. It then moved higher, especially this year, closing at 0.72%

Ed Yardeni

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