Gold

Geopolitical Risks Abound

Aug 26, 2024 3 min read

The world is getting more dangerous. That doesn't seem to be having any impact on the US stock market. The S&P 500 is less than 1% below its July 16 record high, while the equal-weighted version of the index is at a record high (chart). The biggest risk to the bull market in stocks is a recession, according to most strategists. We don't share

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bonds, Oil, Copper, Gold & The Dollar

Jun 10, 2024 3 min read

On a regular basis, we like to check on the correlations among the fixed income, commodity, and foreign currency markets. Here are a few of our observations: (1) Bonds. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has normalized, fluctuating in a range roughly between 4.00% and 5.00% (chart). That's where it traded for a few years prior to the Great Financial Crisis. The same can be said

Ed Yardeni

The Spreading War In The Middle East

Apr 12, 2024 3 min read

Ever since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, we've warned that the latest war in the Middle East between these arch enemies could be protracted and spread to the rest of the region. On October 10, we wrote: "This one isn’t likely to lead to a quick ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as occurred in the past, because it is in fact a war between

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: $100 Oil, $3000 Gold?

Apr 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the current decade turn out to be like the 1920s, 1970s, or 1990s? We are still assigning subjective probabilities of 60% to the Roaring 2020s (like the 1920s), 20% to a bout of irrational exuberance (like the late 1990s), and 20% to a second peak in inflation (as occurred during the 1970s). We might have to increase the odds of a 1970s-like scenario if the price of oil continues

Stephen Rybka

Why Is Gold Shining Again?

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read

Gold is a commodity priced in dollars. Like other commodities priced in dollars, the gold price is inversely correlated with the trade-weighted dollar (chart). The former has been rebounding since late last year as the dollar has been weakening on expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. The price of gold tends to track the underlying trend in commodity prices (chart). So its recent rebound suggests that

Ed Yardeni

Gold Losing Its Shine

Jul 9, 2022 1 min read

Gold hasn't been a good hedge against inflation over the past highly inflationary year. That's not surprising since this precious metal's price is inversely correlated with the 10-year TIPS yield and with the trade-weighted dollar (charts below): (1) The TIPS yield fell to a record low of -1.19% on November 9, 2021. It then moved higher, especially this year, closing at 0.72%

Ed Yardeni