Inflation

Nirvana: Will Somebody Tell The Fed That We Have Arrived?

Feb 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed achieved its congressional dual mandate in January. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, and the CPI inflation rate was down to 2.4% y/y. Those round down to what we call “Nirvana” readings, i.e., the low unemployment level of 4.0% and the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0% (chart). Fed officials should celebrate and go on a long vacation. They can leave the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: February 17–20

Feb 16, 2026 3 min read

This holiday-shortened week could be a pivotal one for investors trying to gauge the outlook for Fed policymaking. Highlights include a first estimate of Q4-2025 real GDP (Fri), December PCED inflation (Fri), February consumer sentiment (Fri), and the minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wed), when policymakers held rates steady. This fresh influx is especially welcome as the economy moves past the government-shutdown data distortions and

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Remind Us: Why Did The Fed Ease?

Dec 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Productivity must be booming. Real GDP jumped 4.3% (saar) in Q3, following a 3.8% increase in Q2. Over the same period, aggregate hours worked in private industry was flat (saar). Productivity must have increased by more than 3.5% over the previous two quarters. That's consistent with our productivity-led Roaring 2020s scenario. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Affordability Crisis

Dec 1, 2025 7 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the December 1, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Affordability I: A Depressed State of Mind. Why are consumers so depressed? The monthly Consumer Optimism Index (COI), which is the average of the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), fell to 69.5 in November (Fig. 1 below). That’s a level consistent with previous recession troughs in this average index. The

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 1-5

Nov 30, 2025 3 min read

With the odds of a December Fed rate cut starting the week at 86% (according to CME FedWatch), the Fed and investors alike probably wish more hard economic data were hitting the tape. Ten days ahead of the most anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year, the hawks and doves are doing a bang-up job making their cases for either waiting until late January to lower the federal

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin's Among Economic Indicators

Oct 15, 2025 4 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 14 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. We are sharing it with our QuickTakes members today. It isn’t easy being an economist when the government shutdown shuts off the flow of economic data. Nevertheless, the Fed is still open for business and issuing economic releases. So are several private-sector sources of economic indicators. On balance, the data we do have suggest that

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 22 - 26

Sep 21, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will offer timely clues about both the American consumer and inflation. The economic releases this week might also influence financial market expectations about another Fed rate cut as soon as the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The federal funds futures market was expecting three 25bps rate cuts over the next six months last week before Thursday's upbeat initial unemployment claims cut the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 8 - 12

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read

On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025. The preliminary revision will estimate how much the monthly payroll report overstated (or understated) actual job growth between April 2024 and March 2025. The final benchmark revision will be

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Is Fed About To Stimulate A Hot Economy?

Aug 28, 2025 3 min read

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That's the highest since the end of 2008. We think the bull market is having a significant positive wealth effect on consumers who own equities, more than offsetting the debt effect on them of rising credit delinquencies. At

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 25-29

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn't a done deal, no matter what Powell hinted at last Friday at Jackson Hole. A lot can happen in a few weeks. Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets September 16-17, policymakers will see a

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claims

Aug 14, 2025 2 min read paid

We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-done in 2025&

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 11 - 15

Aug 10, 2025 3 min read

This is a week loaded with economic data releases that have the potential to shed light on the health of the US economy and change minds at the Federal Reserve—none more so, perhaps, than inflation. While the CPI and PPI are always of interest, the July releases come in the aftermath of jobs data that increased the prospect of interest rate cuts. In this context, retail sales data for

Ed Yardeni

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