Magnificent-7

S&P 500 With & Without The Magnificent-7

Dec 18, 2025 4 min read paid

We are declaring "Mission Accomplished" on our 7000-year-end target for the S&P 500. The index rose to a record high of 6901 on December 11. That's close enough for us and might be the high for this year. We aren't ruling out a Santa Claus rally over the remainder of the year. However, that is unlikely to happen if the S&

Ed Yardeni
Joe Abbott

MARKET CALL: Santa's Rally

Nov 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Santa's back. During the past week, the S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost the week before when it was knocked down hard by the plunge in bitcoin and by fears that the AI bubble-bursting story was true, just as the AI bubble storytellers have been warning. Here is the story we told in a QuickTakes on November 23: "Once their panic selling [of

Ed Yardeni

Bad Day For the Big Short, Thanks To Dip Buyers

Nov 10, 2025 2 min read paid

Today was not a good day to be short AI stocks like Nvidia (up 5.8%) and Palantir (8.8%). They both rebounded dramatically, along with other AI stocks following last week's selloff (chart). Investors and traders bought the dip again. It's hard to short stocks in a bull market. The Magnificent-7 rose 2.8% today after falling 3.4% last week. The AI trade remains

Ed Yardeni

Uncertainty & Breadth

Jul 9, 2025 3 min read paid

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times. Most of

Ed Yardeni

The AI Trade

Mar 28, 2025 3 min read

Two months ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, "All I know is, I'm good for my $80 billion" regarding the $500 billion Stargate AI announcement. His comments followed the emergence of DeepSeek's R1 large language model and chatbot, which was supposedly trained at much lower cost than state-of-the-art models built in the US. A February note from

Ed Yardeni

Another Growth Scare

Feb 27, 2025 3 min read

The stock market is in the midst of another growth scare, in our opinion. The latest batch of economic indicators has been weak. The current growth scare is reminiscent of last summer's scare. It is just as likely to pass if the next batch of economic indicators improves, as we expect. That still leaves policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0 to spook stock investors. We still expect that

Ed Yardeni

The Digital Revolution Marches On As Nvidia Beats

Feb 26, 2025 3 min read paid

Artificial intelligence, and all the capital spending that comes along with it, is here to stay. Nvidia reported today that its sales last quarter rose 78% y/y to $39.3 billion, and management’s revenue guidance of $43.0 billion (+/- 2%) for the current quarter was above the consensus estimate of $41.8 billion. Moreover, the company laid out plans to get its new Blackwell chips to market

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Will DeepSeek Sink The Unsinkable Mag-7?

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The Q4-2024 earnings reporting season is going well so far. It started out two weeks ago with better-than-expected big bank earnings. As a result, industry analysts increased their consensus expected Q4 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 companies collectively from 8.2% y/y to 9.1% y/y (chart). We raised our expected earnings growth rate from 10.0% to 12.0%. The next round of

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Will Trump 2.0 Be Volatile?

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

In recent conversations with our accounts, many of them said that the financial markets may be more volatile under Trump 2.0 over the next six months than they were over the past 12-18 months. In Thursday's QT, we observed that contrarian indicators are showing that there are too many bulls, which is bearish. A couple of prominent and vocal permabears recently conceded that the bulls have been

Ed Yardeni

Contrarian Curses & Tricky Cross Currents Since September 18

Nov 4, 2024 3 min read paid

Investors often rejoice when a stock they own is selected to join a major market index. Index funds collectively have trillions of dollars in AUM and must buy the stock in bulk, giving a boost to its price. But sometimes these bestowed honors can be a curse for the newbie. Super Micro Computer, for instance, joined the S&P 500 on March 18. It had peaked at a record

Ed Yardeni

Going Nowhere Fast?

Oct 30, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has stopped broadening since the Fed's rate cut! Why is that given that the current earnings season has been mostly upbeat? The problem is that the bond yield

Ed Yardeni

Lots of Moving Parts

Jul 25, 2024 3 min read paid

The stock market started to rotate out of LargeCaps and into SMidCaps after June's CPI was released on July 11 (chart). It showed lower-than-expected inflation, which increased the odds that the Fed would start cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) in September and triggered the rotation because small companies tend to depend more on floating-rate debt than large ones. Easier monetary policy would also reduce the likelihood of

Ed Yardeni

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