Market Call

A Bubble In Bubble Fears?

Oct 5, 2025 3 min read

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target back to 7000. We started the year there, but lowered it earlier this year in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. We began raising our forecast again during the spring, when we concluded that the tariff issue would no longer impact the stock market by the end of the summer. We bet the resilience of the economy would boost

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Nothing To Fear But Overvaluation & A Shutdown

Sep 28, 2025 3 min read

The financial markets have become jittery lately due to concerns about high valuation multiples, particularly among AI stocks, and a potential government shutdown. President Donald Trump reportedly will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House on Monday as the threat of a government shutdown on October 1 looms. Meanwhile, investors are once again wondering whether the massive spending on AI infrastructure by the "hyperscalers"

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Oracle Of Austin

Sep 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Last Wednesday, Larry Ellison, the executive chairman and chief technology officer of Oracle, saw his net worth jump by $101 billion—the biggest one-day increase ever recorded on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—to $382 billion. That happened after the company announced at its quarterly earnings conference that Google's Gemini AI models would become available on Oracle's cloud infrastructure. That sent the company's stock soaring

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Apocalypse Now?

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from "Apocalypse Now" featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation's second-largest city. "I love the smell of deportations in the morning," Trump wrote on his social media site. "Chicago about to find out why it'

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Stocks Discounting Fed Put

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC's meeting on September 16-17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had been pushing back against this notion since early this year by saying that the Fed is in no rush to

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Will Powell Be Hawkish, Dovish, Or Owlish In The Grand Tetons?

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read members

The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It's an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics to discuss important economic issues and long-term policy challenges. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Is The Sky The Limit?

Aug 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 nearly matched its July 28 record high on Friday. The Nasdaq did rise to a record high. Once again, the Magnificent-7 stocks collectively are leading the pack. That's because these remarkable companies continue to deliver magnificent earnings, which are increasingly being driven higher by the demand for cloud computing as AI increasingly powers the Digital Revolution. The sky seems to be the limit

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Freaky Friday

Aug 3, 2025 4 min read

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Path Of Least Resistance

Jul 27, 2025 2 min read paid

President Donald Trump is on a roll. He now has 33 trade deals—with the UK, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and the 27 countries that are members of the European Union (EU). The EU deal was announced today. The deals show that Trump has raised his baseline tariff to 15% from 10%. He must figure that, in addition to his other tariffs, the US should collect at least

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: What If the Fed Hints At A September Rate Cut Next Week?

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read paid

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7% based on futures pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool. A strong June jobs report, which added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls and showed the unemployment rate drop to 4.1%, has significantly reduced expectations for a July cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach,

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Trump's Reign Of Tariffs Ain't Over

Jul 13, 2025 9 min read paid

💡The following is an advance excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated July 14, 2025. We are providing it in place of our usual Market Call QuickTakes. Trump’s Tariffs I: More Tariff Turmoil. It’s July. Back in March, we expected that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT) would become less tumultuous by the end of the summer. We figured that President Donald Trump would start to declare victory in his

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Meltup Again? (Do We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear?)

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof. According to Polymarkets, the odds of a recession were back down to 27% on Friday from a recent peak of 66% on May 1

Ed Yardeni

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