Market Call

MARKET CALL: Meltup Again? (Do We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear?)

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof. According to Polymarkets, the odds of a recession were back down to 27% on Friday from a recent peak of 66% on May 1

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Don't Get Thrown Off The Bull

May 25, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Let's Make A Deal

May 11, 2025 3 min read paid

Dealmaking is in the air. American and Chinese delegations met this past weekend to discuss how they might deescalate their trade war. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine on May 15 in the Turkish city of Istanbul that he said should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the war. A fragile ceasefire was holding between India and Pakistan

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: ‘Mission Control, We Have Thrust’

May 4, 2025 4 min read paid

Today, we are lowering our subjective odds of a recession from 45% to 35% following last week's news that China and the US might be moving toward starting trade negotiations. We also remain impressed with the resilience of the US economy following Friday's employment report. However, we are not raising our 6000 year-end target for the S&P 500. Our QuickTakes dated April 24 was

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Death Cross Versus Zweig Breadth Thrust

Apr 27, 2025 4 min read

Only a few days ago, some stock-market-chart watchers warned that Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) set up a bearish Death Cross formation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. That occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average (chart). The formation historically has signaled declines ahead, but not all Death Crosses have preceded major downturns. Now some market watchers are seeing a bullish

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bears

Apr 20, 2025 4 min read paid

We don't recall this ever happening before. During the past three weeks, The Economist has featured three very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the global economy (chart). Contrarians of the world, unite! As extreme bearishness pervades world markets, the old maxim “It’s always darkest before the

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Follow The Bouncing POTUS

Apr 13, 2025 4 min read paid

In our December 17 Morning Briefing, we wrote: "With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we see the potential for a market correction early next year." Our major concern was that the stock market's bulls were discounting too many cuts in the federal funds rate this year, while the bond market's bears were signaling that the Fed had already cut the rate

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: 'There Will Be Flexibility'

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: "I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there's flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal." A WSJ article posted at 5:26 pm today is titled "White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs." It

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: The Best Trump Trade

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let's call it the "Trump Thump." We aren't convinced that the correction is over despite Friday's rally and extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. In

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Riding A Bucking Bull

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read paid

In recent weeks, many news headlines have suggested that the US economy is tanking and that so is the Old World Order. So investors are jittery, and a risk-off investment style is back in favor relative to a risk-on posture. They are questioning whether Trump 2.0 might depress the economy before stimulating it because higher tariffs, deportations, and federal job cuts are occurring before tax cuts, deregulation, and lower

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Still In Choppy Waters Or Going Over A Waterfall?

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Our answer to the title's question is that the stock market is still in choppy waters. Admittedly, it felt more like a waterfall on Thursday and Friday. However, the S&P 500 was down only 2.1% and that was from a record high on Wednesday (chart). Our hunch is that sentiment turned very bearish very quickly at the end of last week because investors aren'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Unexceptional Performance Of US Stocks So Far In 2025

Feb 17, 2025 3 min read paid

US stocks haven't been exceptional since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5, 2024. That's if the performances on the major country MSCI stock market indexes are measured in local currencies (chart). So far, Trump's tariff turmoil seems to be weighing more on the US, Canada, Mexico, and many other emerging markets than on China and most European countries. That could change

Ed Yardeni

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