PPI

Cornucopia of Data

Nov 27, 2025 4 min read

We are thankful for your interest in our research. Happy Thanksgiving! Now that the government shutdown is over, there is plenty of data again with which to assess the economy's performance. On balance, GDP growth remains robust despite lackluster labor market indicators. Consumers are consuming. Inflation is subdued just below 3.0%. The federal deficit remains enormous. Federal tax receipts confirm the economy is growing. Nevertheless, the Fed,

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 24-28

Nov 23, 2025 3 min read

During this holiday-shortened week, investors will receive a cornucopia of data now that the government is open again. Some of the data will be a bit stale. But they should indicate how Q3 ended for the economy. September's retail sales report (Tue) should show a solid increase, with strength in spending by higher-income shoppers more than offsetting the weakness in spending by lower-income workers. This dichotomy is supported

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

Why Cooler Inflation Isn't Lifting Markets

Mar 13, 2025 2 min read paid

February's inflation data provided conflicting stories. Both the CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, but neither cheered the stock and bond markets. That's because the components of both gauges that feed into the Fed's preferred PCED inflation rate were actually a bit hotter. In addition, January's PPI increase was revised up from 0.4% to 0.6%. So it'

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Bond Yields Do A Backflip On CPI & PPI, Stocks Rally On Tariff News

Feb 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped by 10bps on Wednesday's hotter-than-expected January CPI report (chart). In his congressional testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has more work to do to get inflation down. Today, the bond yield fell 10bps on a hotter-than expected January PPI report and an upward revision in December's PPI. Huh? You read that right. Some of the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Fed Rate Cuts On Ice As Inflation Heats Up

Feb 12, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's hotter-than-expected January CPI inflation did some damage to bonds, raising long-term Treasury yields roughly 10bps. Headline and core CPI rose 0.5% and 0.4% m/m, respectively, as many companies set their annual price increases. But this wasn't a start-of-the-year blip; inflation has been rising since last summer (chart). So after 100bps of federal funds rate (FFR) cuts from September 18 through December 18

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Not Too Cold, Not Too Hot

Jan 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Bond Vigilantes Are Fighting The Fed

Dec 12, 2024 3 min read paid

After today's PPI, we won't be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like "Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause Rate Cutting Following Hot Inflation Data." The current consensus seems to be that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps on December 18. But it might be a "hawkish

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Zettascale Computing Is Coming Using Nvidia's Blackwell Chips!

Sep 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday, stock prices initially fell sharply following August's CPI report, but AI fever quickly turned the S&P 500 around to a 1% gain. Yesterday, Oracle announced it is taking orders for the first "zettascale" AI supercomputer, which will be powered by up to 131,072 Nvidia Blackwell chips. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also told a Goldman Sachs conference that demand for their Blackwell chips

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Immaculate Disinflation!

Aug 13, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's July PPI was cooler than expected, rising just 0.1% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The markets responded by betting on a swifter Fed interest rate cutting cycle, sinking the 2-year Treasury yield to 3.956% and the 10-year yield to 3.856%. Stocks rallied in response to the data. The low inflation print supports our view that the US economy has left inflation

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Low Inflation Readings Stampede the Bulls

Jun 13, 2024 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warned markets to expect no more than one interest rate cut over the rest of this year. But the bulls are charging ahead anyway on May's lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data yesterday and today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 25bps since Monday's high to 4.24% (chart). The Nasdaq hit another record high

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

PPI Not As Hot As CPI

Apr 11, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's PPI report threw some cold water on yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI. Our opinion is that the Fed won't be lowering interest rates this year because the economy and labor market will remain strong. Yesterday's CPI confirmed our conclusion based on the wrong premise. We aren't expecting inflation to get stuck above the Fed's 2.0% target. We think

Ed Yardeni

US Disinflation Is Made In China

Jul 13, 2023 2 min read paid

It's not quite the great fall of China. However, something is definitely wrong with China's economy. June's trade data showed that Chinese exports fell sharply for the second month in a row and imports have remained flat since mid-2021 (chart). It was widely expected that the end of the government's pandemic lockdowns late last year would boost economic activity in China and

Ed Yardeni

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