S&P 500

More Thoughts On Bitcoin, Stablecoin & Gold

Dec 2, 2025 3 min read paid

We do not have an opinion on bitcoin because we don't have any way to value it. It has been widely called "digital gold." We've previously described bitcoin as "digital tulips." That makes us sound bearish since the famous Tulip Bulb Bubble burst in Amsterdam several centuries ago, once it was realized that the small Dutch market had run out of buyers

Ed Yardeni

Home Stretch For The Holidays

Nov 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 closed at 5881.63 at the end of last year. It is up 16.2% since then to 6846.61 today (chart). That beats the average 10.4% ytd gain at this point in the year over the past 10 years. The average annual increase over the past 10 years was 12.3%. If this turns out to be an average year, then the S&

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 And Gold Price Racing Toward $10,000 By 2029?

Oct 16, 2025 4 min read paid

We first began writing about our Roaring 2020s scenario in 2020. So far, so good. Both the S&P 500 and the price of gold have been roaring ahead to new record highs this year (chart). We wouldn't be surprised if both hit 10,000 by the end of the decade. The stock price index and the gold price have exhibited an inverse cyclical correlation, but their

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Pullback, Correction, Or Meltdown?

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump Trade Turmoil hit the stock market hard on Friday as President Donald Trump raised the US tariff on Chinese imports from 30% to 130% in retaliation for China’s imposing severe export controls on its exports of rare earth minerals. This all happened ahead of a summit meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi scheduled for later this month. On Friday, Trump said he might not attend, then changed

Ed Yardeni

What Is The Stock Market Discounting?

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market is discounting the ongoing resilience of the economy and corporate earnings. It is discounting that the odds of a recession over the rest of the Roaring 2020s are low. The longer the economy is expected to grow without a recession, the more sustainable high valuation multiples can be, since earnings growth can be expected to justify those valuations (chart). High valuations don't cause bear markets.

Ed Yardeni

Earnings-Led Meltup?

Sep 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Apocalypse Now?

Sep 7, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from "Apocalypse Now" featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation's second-largest city. "I love the smell of deportations in the morning," Trump wrote on his social media site. "Chicago about to find out why it'

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: What If the Fed Hints At A September Rate Cut Next Week?

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read paid

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7% based on futures pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool. A strong June jobs report, which added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls and showed the unemployment rate drop to 4.1%, has significantly reduced expectations for a July cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach,

Ed Yardeni

Uncertainty & Breadth

Jul 9, 2025 3 min read paid

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times. Most of

Ed Yardeni

From Trade Wars To Trade Deals

May 8, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump will need to declare victories in his trade wars with multiple countries around the world sooner rather than later. He and his fellow Republicans have to avoid a recession caused by his tariff wars. Otherwise, they risk losing their thin majorities in both houses of Congress later in 2026. In addition, court cases are piling up that challenge the President’s legal authority to declare a crisis

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Best Trump Trade

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let's call it the "Trump Thump." We aren't convinced that the correction is over despite Friday's rally and extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. In

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

MARKET CALL: Still In Choppy Waters Or Going Over A Waterfall?

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Our answer to the title's question is that the stock market is still in choppy waters. Admittedly, it felt more like a waterfall on Thursday and Friday. However, the S&P 500 was down only 2.1% and that was from a record high on Wednesday (chart). Our hunch is that sentiment turned very bearish very quickly at the end of last week because investors aren'

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

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