S&P 500 Earnings

Stocks Up As Mullahs Ready To Talk, Again

Jun 16, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices rose this morning as oil prices fell a bit on news reports that the Mullahs want Israel to stop pounding them and are willing to resume nuclear talks with the US as long as the US doesn't start pounding them too. Israel has established air superiority over Iran by knocking out most of the country's air defense systems. Israel is now focusing on knocking

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Meltup Again? (Do We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear?)

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof. According to Polymarkets, the odds of a recession were back down to 27% on Friday from a recent peak of 66% on May 1

Ed Yardeni

Another Happy-Go-Lucky Day

Jun 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: S&P 500 Earnings & Valuation

May 31, 2025 4 min read paid

We now have LSEG’s I/B/E/S data for S&P 500 companies’ revenues per share and earnings per share during Q1. Both edged down on a q/q basis but showed solid gains on a y/y basis (chart). The profit margin edged up to 13.3%. Notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), the economy remains resilient, supporting an upbeat outlook for revenues. Earnings should

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Valuation Mojo Driving Stocks' Big Mo Rally

May 18, 2025 2 min read paid

The meltup scenario is making a dramatic comeback. It was one of our three scenarios until March 24 when we wrote the following in our Morning Briefing: "We've decided to fold our 1990s meltup/meltdown scenario into our Roaring 2020s scenario. The current correction in the stock market suggests that the former has played out already, as the bull market's highflyers have been hit hardest

Ed Yardeni

Recalibrating Our Forecasts As Stock Market Roars

May 12, 2025 4 min read paid

Among our main concerns about Trump's Tariff Turmoil was that the drop in stock prices would have a significant negative wealth effect on consumers, especially retired and soon-to-be retiring Baby Boomers, who collectively own about $25 trillion in corporate equities and mutual funds (chart). We raised our subjective probability of a recession this year from 20% to 35% on March 5, and from 35% to 45% on March

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Let's Make A Deal

May 11, 2025 3 min read paid

Dealmaking is in the air. American and Chinese delegations met this past weekend to discuss how they might deescalate their trade war. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine on May 15 in the Turkish city of Istanbul that he said should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the war. A fragile ceasefire was holding between India and Pakistan

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Death Cross Versus Zweig Breadth Thrust

Apr 27, 2025 4 min read

Only a few days ago, some stock-market-chart watchers warned that Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) set up a bearish Death Cross formation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. That occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average (chart). The formation historically has signaled declines ahead, but not all Death Crosses have preceded major downturns. Now some market watchers are seeing a bullish

Ed Yardeni

Looking For A Stock Market Bottom In Fundamentals & Technicals

Apr 7, 2025 3 min read paid

After the stock market crashed on Thursday and Friday of last week, we have to conclude that any day during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't down more than 1000 points is a good day. Today was an okay day. The DJIA plunged 1652.81 through 9:42 a.m. It then soared 2518.86 by 10.16 a.m. on a bogus report that President Trump

Ed Yardeni

Our New S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Under Trump's Reign Of Tariffs

Mar 31, 2025 4 min read

Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a shallow recession later this year, following a buy-in-advance shopping spree during April and May. We did so because Trump's Reign of Tariffs imposed a 25% permanent tariff on imported autos and auto parts last

Ed Yardeni

Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?

Mar 4, 2025 3 min read paid

We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be stronger in February and March, as we've discussed in recent days. However, Trump's tariffs imposed today on Canada, China, and Mexico could have stagflationary consequences

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Will DeepSeek Sink The Unsinkable Mag-7?

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The Q4-2024 earnings reporting season is going well so far. It started out two weeks ago with better-than-expected big bank earnings. As a result, industry analysts increased their consensus expected Q4 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 companies collectively from 8.2% y/y to 9.1% y/y (chart). We raised our expected earnings growth rate from 10.0% to 12.0%. The next round of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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