Stagflation

On The Fog Of War & Having Second Thoughts

Mar 3, 2026 4 min read

Our initial reaction to the latest war in the Middle East was that it isn't likely to last long. However, wars are hard to predict. The fog of war can be very disorienting. The US and Israel killed the top leaders of Iran's regime during the first day of their attacks on the country. So we thought that might set the stage for a short war.

Ed Yardeni

Stagflation’s Absence, Trump’s Deal-Making, Government’s Higher Debt

Jun 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market didn't do much today. Neither did the bond market. But the price of a barrel of crude oil rose, and so did the price of an ounce of gold. President Donald Trump announced another deal with China. The US will allow Chinese students to continue attending American colleges, and China will continue to provide rare earth minerals to American manufacturers. Tariffs imposed on each country

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Are Stirred, Not Shaken

Apr 28, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down roughly 10% from its record high on February 19. Considering Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), that's not too bad. Also recall all the angst unleashed when the 10-year US Treasury bond yield spiked from 4.00% to 4.50% right after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs. Now it is back down to 4.20%

Ed Yardeni

A Rubik's Cube Of Questions Along With Some Weak Soft Data

Apr 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying binge? Will robust capital spending related to onshoring offset weakness related to Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT)? Will China and the US escalate their trade war? Who will blink

Ed Yardeni

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On The Fog Of War & Having Second Thoughts

Stagflation’s Absence, Trump’s Deal-Making, Government’s Higher Debt

Bonds Are Stirred, Not Shaken

A Rubik's Cube Of Questions Along With Some Weak Soft Data