Stock Market

S&P 500 Analysts Shaving Their Profit Margin Estimates

Sep 8, 2022 1 min read

Previously, we observed that industry analysts covering the S&P 500 (as well as the S&P 400 and S&P 600) shaved their 2022 and 2023 during the Q2 earnings reporting season that started in July and ended in August. That may be it for now until they get another round of guidance from company managements for Q3 starting in October. Analysts remain mostly bullish on

Ed Yardeni

Reversal Days Signal Sideways Stock Market

Sep 8, 2022 1 min read paid

Stock investors don't know whether they are coming or going. They don't have much conviction. Yesterday, we observed that there are more market letters calling for a correction than either a big move up or down in the stock market. Reversal days seem to be occurring more frequently recently. Some days the market starts by moving down only to finish up. The next day, it goes

Ed Yardeni

BBR Drops Back to 1.0

Sep 7, 2022 1 min read

Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) slipped this week for the third week, to 1.00 (chart below). It had advanced the previous six weeks from 0.76 to 1.64, which was the highest reading since early January. (It was at 0.60 during mid-June, which was the lowest since the week of March 10, 2009’s 0.56.) BBR readings of 1.00 or less tend to be associated

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Less Risky

Sep 3, 2022 2 min read

The bears say that the 17.4% rally in the S&P 500 between June 16 and August 16 was a short-covering rally. Now that the index is down 8.8% from its recent high, they say the bear market isn't over and will soon take out its recent low. The bulls (including us) believe that the latest bear market's bottom will hold, and won&

Ed Yardeni

The Calm Before The Storm?

Aug 25, 2022 1 min read

They say that the stock market tends to climb a wall of worry. It has been doing just that since the S&P 500 bottomed at 3666.77 on June 16. It rose 1.4% today even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, and might sound more hawkish to compensate for sounding too dovish at his prior speaking

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings Stalling

Aug 24, 2022 1 min read paid

The forward earnings* of the S&P 500 peaked at a record high in late June, just before the start of Q2's earnings reporting season. Since then industry analysts have been shaving their 2022 and 2023 earnings estimates. As a result, forward earnings has stalled. Let's drill down to the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (chart below):

Ed Yardeni

The Most Bearish Two Charts In Our Collection

Aug 23, 2022 1 min read

On our website, thousands of our charts are automatically updated as new data become available. The most bearish of the lot are shown below. The first one shows the Fed's holdings of securities versus the S&P 500. The second shows the former versus the forward P/E of the S&P 500. We added a dotted line to track the Fed’s QT2, which ramps

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Risk Off

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The stock market is overbought. Since June 16, the S&P 500 is up 15% including its 1.2% decline last week back to 4228, failing to rise above its 200-day moving average, which was 4306 on Friday. Over the same period, the Nasdaq is up 19% after giving back 2% last week. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up 41bps from a recent low of 2.

Ed Yardeni

Buffett Is Bullish While His Ratio Is Bearish

Aug 20, 2022 1 min read paid

Yesterday, the Motley Fool reported that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was on a buying spree during the recent bear market. Apparently, the Oracle of Omaha isn't concerned that his famous Buffett Ratio remains in bearish territory. In a December 2001 Fortune article, Buffett observed that when the ratio of the value of all stocks traded in the US to nominal GNP exceeds 200%, its best to

Ed Yardeni

CFO Put Replaces Fed Put

Aug 19, 2022 1 min read

The Fed Put may be kaput, but the CFO Put is still going gut, as they say in German. Starting in September, the Fed intends to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. During the first half of 2022, the Fed has remained hawkish, and resisted caving in to the stock market's tightening tantrum. However, Corporate America continues to pour some of its massive cash flow

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Rebounding

Aug 17, 2022 1 min read paid

Pessimism sells newspapers better than optimism. Pessimism also creates buying opportunities for optimists. Investors are no longer as bearish as they were eight weeks ago. From a contrarian perspective, as we’ve seen just recently, extreme pessimism tends to be bullish, unless the world really does come to an end, in which case, who cares? Here’s a quick update on Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR):

Ed Yardeni

TINAC & TICS Update

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read

June's Treasury International Capital System (TICS) was released on Monday. The TICS data tend to confirm our TINAC thesis, i.e., there is no alternative country: the US is a safe haven for global investors confronted with a very stormy global investment climate. Consider the following: (1) On a 12-month basis through June, the US had private net capital inflows of $1.5 trillion (chart below). It'

Ed Yardeni

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