Surveys

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 3-7

Nov 2, 2025 2 min read

A big week of economic releases is coming up, but the government won’t be reporting them because it is closed for business. Nevertheless, the week ahead will still be a big one for private-sector economic data. On balance, they are likely to show that the economy is expanding, consumers are spending, and employment is still growing, albeit at a slow pace. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. The weekly

Ed Yardeni

Reality Check

Oct 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Shares of Nokia soared by 23% today after the telecom equipment provider announced a billion-dollar partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) giant Nvidia. As part of the deal, Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion in Nokia in exchange for a 2.9% stake in the Finnish networking pioneer. Yardeni Research is seeking an investment from Nvidia. The funds will be used to build a data center in Dr Ed's

Ed Yardeni

Russell 2000 Is For Losers, But Is Currently Winning

Oct 2, 2025 3 min read paid

The Russell 2000 small-cap stock price index is outperforming the S&P 600, another small-cap index (chart). The former includes many more companies that are losing money than the latter. This is yet another sign of mounting speculative froth in financial markets in response to the Fed's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate on September 17. The S&P 600's requirement that companies

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 21-25

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read

This might be a good week to take a summer vacation. The economic data calendar is light. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell will speak in Washington, perhaps offering an update on his views on employment, inflation, and interest rates. He won't comment on calls for his resignation. Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman could make some news at the same conference the following day. The European Central Bank is

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 12 - 16

May 11, 2025 4 min read

The coming week is jampacked with several April economic indicators and a couple of May regional business surveys. On balance, they should show that the soft data turned even softer mostly in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. The hard data are likely to be mixed, though consumer-related indicators should show resilience. The week's headline inflation indicators may be subdued by stable energy prices, while the core

Ed Yardeni

More Bad News Caused By Trump Turmoil 2.0

Apr 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to 4.03% as recession fears outweigh inflation fears. Yesterday's Liberation Day festivities in the Rose Garden set off a freefall in stock prices on increasing fears

Ed Yardeni

From Election Uncertainty To Policy Uncertainty

Nov 12, 2024 3 min read paid

The NFIB survey of small business owners was released today showing a record high in their uncertainty index during October (chart). That's not surprising since the polls showed that the presidential race was too close to call, raising the prospect of a contested election. The same happened prior to the previous two elections. The uncertainty index will undoubtedly fall when November's survey is released. However, it

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

China Is The Source Of The Deflation Trade

Sep 10, 2024 2 min read paid

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to trim the outlook for global oil demand, further depressing oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell below $70 a barrel on Tuesday to their cheapest since December 2021 (chart). Declining oil prices dragged the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Banking on Looser Regulation

Jul 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Bank stocks popped today after Reuters reported that the Fed is considering relaxing a regulation, i.e., the GSIB Surcharge. It requires big banks to hold additional capital due to the systemic risk they pose to the global financial system. Tweaking the GSIB surcharge would free up big banks to lend more. The S&P 500 Financials stock price index had already been doing well. It is up 37.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: June 3-7

Jun 2, 2024 2 min read paid

This week, May's employment report (Fri) is likely to be the most important one. We expect the labor market cooled a bit last month, tempering wage growth but not signaling a looming employment-led recession. Less profit margin pressure from wage inflation should boost company earnings, while the solid jobs market should continue to fuel consumer spending. If so, that's bullish for stocks. Here’s what we’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Purchasing Managers Report Weakening Economy

May 6, 2024 2 min read paid

Among last week’s batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators were April’s M-PMI and NM-PMI compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Both fell below 50.0 during April, with the former at 49.2 and the latter 49.4 (chart). Here’s more:

Ed Yardeni

Lackluster Fed Regional Business Surveys

Apr 29, 2024 2 min read paid

We now have the regional business surveys conducted by five of the Federal Reserve district banks. The average of their general business conditions indexes closely tracks the national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI), which rose slightly above 50.0 during March following 16 consecutive monthly readings below this level (chart). The regional average index was still negative in April. So it has yet to confirm that the rolling recession in

Ed Yardeni

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