Surveys

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 17-21

Aug 15, 2026 3 min read

Last week brought mixed inflation news in the US: July’s core CPI inflation rate cooled to 2.5% y/y, its lowest since March 2021 (chart). However, July's comparable PPI rose 4.4%. Wednesday’s release of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes should provide some insights on how Fed officials were assessing the outlook for inflation before these numbers were available. Weekly unemployment claims (Thu)

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 29 - July 3

Jun 28, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,354.02, down 2.0% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Apple and Microsoft raised their consumer product prices on Thursday, citing memory and storage chip costs that have more than doubled since last fall and are expected to double again by late 2027. The driver is demand for DRAM and NAND from AI data centers. Memory chip

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Is Wall Street's AI Boom Spreading To Main Street? Nothing To Fear But FOMO?

Jun 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today, rising above 7600 for the first time. On May 11, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250, still the highest forecast on Wall Street. We did so because of the strength and breadth of S&P 500 earnings during the Q1 earnings reporting season. That led us to conclude that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JUNE 1-5

May 30, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580.05. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) and falling oil prices boosted stock prices. Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel, the lowest weekly close since April 17. Axios reports that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire-extension deal, pending President Trump's approval. The odds that the US blockade of the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 25-29

May 24, 2026 3 min read

The US financial markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the holiday-shortened week is light on economic data releases. On Thursday, the second estimate of Q1-2026 GDP will be reported alongside April's core PCED, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Eight Fed officials speak over the week. With little fresh data to help investors gauge whether the FOMC is turning more hawkish, they’

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Mindboggling: Quantum Computing + AI + Resilient Economy

May 21, 2026 4 min read

The Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to invest $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act across nine quantum computing and hardware companies. Rather than issuing traditional research grants, the Trump administration is taking minority equity stakes in these companies in exchange for the capital, continuing a broader policy shift toward direct government ownership in strategically critical sectors (similar to previous moves with Intel and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 18-22

May 17, 2026 4 min read

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% from its record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. A run of hot inflation data and a spike in bond yields did the damage on Friday. April headline CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while core CPI was 2.8%. The big shocker was last Wednesday's April PPI for final demand, which rose

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Bond Yields Heating Up

May 4, 2026 4 min read paid

Today, the US launched Project Freedom, deploying 15,000 service members and over 100 aircraft to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The first two US-flagged merchant tankers were successfully escorted this morning. However, Iran struck the UAE's Fujairah energy hub and a UAE oil tanker and damaged residential areas in Oman. US forces destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted multiple missiles and

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Dire Strait Versus Home On The Range

Mar 4, 2026 4 min read

Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors believe Iran has lost the war and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 2 - 6

Mar 1, 2026 3 min read

Nothing upends the economic game board like a sudden war few had in their bingo cards a week ago. Granted, the coordinated US-Israel attack on Iran over the weekend wasn’t a complete surprise. But the scale of the bombardment that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was impressive. Tehran’s wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks aimed at US bases and allies around the region, and threats

Ed Yardeni

Will The US Economy Remain Resilient Despite AI Derangement Syndrome?

Feb 26, 2026 4 min read paid

If AI continues to disrupt, if not destroy, more and more business models, won't that cause a recession? It might if it triggers lots of white-collar layoffs, which in turn lead to blue-collar job losses (chart). Alternatively, it might cause a credit crunch in the private credit markets. UBS Group AG has raised its private credit default forecast, with its strategists warning that losses could reach

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Economy & Earnings Are Heating Up

Feb 2, 2026 4 min read paid

There's never a dull moment in our business these days. Events impacting the financial markets are happening so fast that we probably need to stop every now and then to update you on our latest forecasts. We are still targeting the S&P 500 at 7,700 by the end of this year and 10,000 by the end of the decade. The 10-year Treasury bond

Ed Yardeni

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