Tariffs

July 9 Trade Deals Deadline 'Is Not Critical'

Jun 26, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices got a boost around mid-day today when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a briefing: “The President can simply provide these countries with a [trade] deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline, and that means the President can pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States and for the American worker.” We've been

Ed Yardeni

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom or

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Don't Get Thrown Off The Bull

May 25, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

By The Shores Of Lake Geneva

May 12, 2025 3 min read

Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process." The US and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Stock prices soared on this

Ed Yardeni

From Trade Wars To Trade Deals

May 8, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump will need to declare victories in his trade wars with multiple countries around the world sooner rather than later. He and his fellow Republicans have to avoid a recession caused by his tariff wars. Otherwise, they risk losing their thin majorities in both houses of Congress later in 2026. In addition, court cases are piling up that challenge the President’s legal authority to declare a crisis

Ed Yardeni

Year Of The Snake

May 2, 2025 3 min read

Stock prices soared today on a better-than-expected April US employment report and news that China is evaluating US overtures to start trade negotiations. In the Chinese zodiac, 2025 is the Year of the Snake. It began on January 29, 2025. It is shaping up to be a bad year for China's economy. We've been thinking that the Chinese are less likely to blink than President Donald

Ed Yardeni

Is The US In A Recession?

Apr 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down sharply this afternoon. Losses started in the morning due to more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) news. Nvidia's disclosure that the US government's new controls on its semiconductor exports to China would result in a $5.5 billion loss dragged down its shares and major indexes. Losses extended in the afternoon after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's prepared remarks

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rise On Latest Trump Pivot

Apr 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to "help some of the car companies" with his 25% auto tariff (chart). The automakers "need a little bit of time" to move their production to the US, Trump said. Tech stocks rose too after guidance on Friday

Ed Yardeni

Tit-For-Tat: The Opposite Of Panda Diplomacy

Apr 14, 2025 2 min read

The trade war between the US and China is heating up, increasing the risk that China will invade Taiwan. Let us explain. On April 11, Reuters reported the following: "Shipments of seven rare earths placed on an export control list last week by Beijing have ground to halt, three sources said, raising the risk of shortages overseas as Chinese exporters begin the long, uncertain wait for government licenses. Shipments

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Follow The Bouncing POTUS

Apr 13, 2025 4 min read paid

In our December 17 Morning Briefing, we wrote: "With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we see the potential for a market correction early next year." Our major concern was that the stock market's bulls were discounting too many cuts in the federal funds rate this year, while the bond market's bears were signaling that the Fed had already cut the rate

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Remain Unhappy

Apr 10, 2025 3 min read

It was not a happy day in the bond market. Neither was it a happy day in the stock market: Bond Market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.45% this evening, up from a recent low of 4.01% on April 4, two days after Liberation Day. Yesterday, President Donald Trump partially postponed Liberation Day because the bond market was "tricky." It remained tricky today. Yields

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: APRIL 7-11

Apr 6, 2025 3 min read paid

While Trump's tariffs will likely dominate the headlines, the economic week ahead will also focus on the inflationary impact of US import duties. We expect March's CPI (Thu) and PPI (Fri) to confirm our concern that higher goods prices will lift headline inflation measures quickly, preventing an easing policy response from the Fed. In other words, the Fed Put is likely on hold this year even

Ed Yardeni

Page 1 of 3