Trump 2.0

Market Call: What Could Possibly Go Wrong In September?

Aug 30, 2025 4 min read

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies. So, might the latest top in the S&P 500 have been hit on

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Freaky Friday

Aug 3, 2025 4 min read

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On

Ed Yardeni

Trump's Tariffs Go To Court

Jul 23, 2025 5 min read

The following is a note on imminent court decisions regarding President Donald Trump's tariffs, written by Jim Lucier, one of the best Washington watchers we know and a good friend of Yardeni Research. Jim is one of the founders of Capital Alpha Partners, LLC, a leading, independent provider of strategic policy research and political forecasting. For more details about the Capital Alpha team, please email inquiries@capalphadc.com�

Ed Yardeni

Washington Creates Buzz 24x7

Jul 22, 2025 3 min read paid

Can't we get a day without news coming out of the White House? Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an "exhaustive internal review" of the Fed's "non-monetary policy operations." He accused the central bank of "significant mission creep." He did so on CNBC in the morning. In a lengthy post on X, Bessent sought to clarify his remarks

Ed Yardeni

Is Inflation Stuck At 3.0% Because Of Trump's Tariffs?

Jul 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's CPI report for June suggests that consumer price inflation is no longer declining toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Instead, it might continue to hover around 3.0% for a while as it has recently (chart). Trump's tariffs may be a contributing factor, though their impact remains debated. The core CPI inflation rate upticked to 2.9% last month, hinting that the core

Ed Yardeni

Russian Roulette, the Dollar, and Gold

Jul 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The US stock market held up very well today in the face of Trump's escalation of his trade war with the world over the weekend. Maybe that's because he threatened that his latest tariff salvo won't be fired until August 1 (i.e., Liberation Day II). So there is still time to negotiate trade deals. Today, he also threatened to impose 100% "secondary&

Ed Yardeni

Seinfeld Kind Of Summer Day

Jul 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Nothing happened today in the financial markets. The prices of stocks, bonds, the dollar, and oil all were relatively flat. On the other hand, there was more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT). But the markets watched it all with as much interest as watching reruns on TV. President Donald Trump huffed and puffed again. The financial markets' reaction was ho-hum. Trump today announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on

Ed Yardeni

Liberation Day II

Jul 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Liberation Day I occurred on Wednesday, April 2 after the stock market closed, when President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners. The immediate reaction was what we called "Annihilation Days" in the stock and bond markets until April 9, when Liberation Day I was postponed until July 9 (chart). Today, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs again on 14 countries. Their governments have until August

Ed Yardeni

Correction: On Fed Governors' Terms

Jul 1, 2025 1 min read

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31, 2028. However, we were incorrect that President Donald Trump would be limited to the other current Fed governors when appointing the next Fed chair. That's because Fed

Ed Yardeni

Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar

Jul 1, 2025 4 min read paid

There is method to President Donald Trump's madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker dollar to boost US exports and depress US imports. He has said that he favored a weaker dollar many times in the past, but now he has found a

Ed Yardeni

July 9 Trade Deals Deadline 'Is Not Critical'

Jun 26, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices got a boost around mid-day today when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a briefing: “The President can simply provide these countries with a [trade] deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline, and that means the President can pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States and for the American worker.” We've been

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Chilling Down While Middle East Is Heating Up

Jun 12, 2025 4 min read paid

May's PPI inflation report, released today, was lower than expected as was May's CPI inflation report yesterday. The PPI final demand for personal consumption edged down to 2.6% y/y in May, while the CPI rose only 2.4% during the month (chart). Both suggest that May's PCED inflation rate might have dropped to 2.0%, which would finally be down to the

Ed Yardeni

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