Trump 2.0

July 9 Trade Deals Deadline 'Is Not Critical'

Jun 26, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices got a boost around mid-day today when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a briefing: “The President can simply provide these countries with a [trade] deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline, and that means the President can pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States and for the American worker.” We've been

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Chilling Down While Middle East Is Heating Up

Jun 12, 2025 4 min read paid

May's PPI inflation report, released today, was lower than expected as was May's CPI inflation report yesterday. The PPI final demand for personal consumption edged down to 2.6% y/y in May, while the CPI rose only 2.4% during the month (chart). Both suggest that May's PCED inflation rate might have dropped to 2.0%, which would finally be down to the

Ed Yardeni

Inflationary Expectations Decline In US As China Deflates

Jun 9, 2025 3 min read paid

In the hilarious comedy movie "What About Bob," Bill Murray, who plays Bob, tells his shrink "that there are two types of people in this world. Those who like Neil Diamond and those who don't." There also seem to be two types of respondents to surveys of inflationary expectations: like those included in the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) survey and those included in the

Ed Yardeni

Another Happy-Go-Lucky Day

Jun 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Checks and Balances

May 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The US is a federal republic. It isn't a democracy, where the majority always rules. The constitutional system was designed by the Founding Fathers, who were mostly lawyers, to provide checks and balances to avert the concentration of political power and to protect the rights of minority parties against abuses by the majority as well as by those in power. The three branches of government were designed to

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom or

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Don't Get Thrown Off The Bull

May 25, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Elephants In The Room

May 22, 2025 3 min read

The elephant is as good a metaphor as there is for the US government bond market. Its scale, power, memory, emotional intelligence, and tendency to live in complex family groups—just like the broad array of debt instruments—are right on the nose . . . er, trunk. Yet this week, we saw that the room in which the bond market operates has more than one elephant. The other large mammal in question

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

By The Shores Of Lake Geneva

May 12, 2025 3 min read

Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process." The US and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Stock prices soared on this

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Is Tariffied

Apr 30, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is certainly upsetting global trade relations and confusing financial markets. This is all having an effect on the US economy, as evidenced by today's Q1 GDP report. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that real GDP fell 0.3% (saar) (chart). By the end of the day, the

Ed Yardeni

POTUS Blinks

Apr 23, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump blinked. So stock prices rose. Late Tuesday, he said that he has "no intention" of firing Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed chair will end in May 2026. That's after berating Powell for the past few days and threatening to fire him. Furthermore, Trump appeared to soften his stance on the US-China trade war on Tuesday, telling an Oval Office press conference that

Ed Yardeni

Damage Assessment

Apr 21, 2025 4 min read paid

Stock prices fell sharply today in response to President Donald Trump's recent unseemly barrage of hostile tweets directed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump seems to be setting Powell up to be the fall guy if Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) causes a recession later this year. Also unnerving stock prices was a warning from Beijing to all its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to

Ed Yardeni

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