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Unsettling Economic Policy Conditions Starting To Unsettle The Economy
Today's batch of economic indicators shows a few signs that Trump Turmoil 2.0 started to weigh on…
Trump 2.0
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Our New S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Under Trump's Reign Of Tariffs
Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of…
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Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down
YRI Bulletin Board. Our colleague Eric Wallerstein is taking a leave of absence. He has accepted a position on the…
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Helter-Skelter
"Helter-skelter" is a term used to describe disorderly haste, confusion, or chaos. That seems to be descriptive of…
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Scared Cat Bounce?
The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday…
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Stock Market Vigilantes On The Warpath
The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs, and they don't like mass firings…
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MARKET CALL: Investing Without A Trump Or Powell Put
Anything is possible in Trump World. We can't rule out the possibility that a bear market started on…
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Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’
Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity.…
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Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?
We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going.…
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MARKET CALL: Riding A Bucking Bull
In recent weeks, many news headlines have suggested that the US economy is tanking and that so is the Old…
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MARKET CALL: Choppy Waters
The major stock market indexes are still up since Election Day despite recent turbulence caused by DeepSeek and Trump Tariffs…
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MARKET CALL: Beware The Front Cover Curse & Trump Tariffs 2.0
We are sure that Forbes magazine has had plenty of cover stories about successful entrepreneurs who survived the front-cover curse…
