Trump 2.0

Checks and Balances

May 29, 2025 3 min read paid

The US is a federal republic. It isn't a democracy, where the majority always rules. The constitutional system was designed by the Founding Fathers, who were mostly lawyers, to provide checks and balances to avert the concentration of political power and to protect the rights of minority parties against abuses by the majority as well as by those in power. The three branches of government were designed to

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

From Trump's Tariff-Postpone-Repeat to Court's Cease-and-Desist

May 28, 2025 3 min read

In imposing his tariffs in early April, President Donald Trump called the trade deficit a national emergency that justified his doing so. This evening, the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade said the US Constitution gives Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with other countries that is not overridden by the president's emergency powers to safeguard the US economy. "The court does not pass upon the wisdom or

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Don't Get Thrown Off The Bull

May 25, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Elephants In The Room

May 22, 2025 3 min read

The elephant is as good a metaphor as there is for the US government bond market. Its scale, power, memory, emotional intelligence, and tendency to live in complex family groups—just like the broad array of debt instruments—are right on the nose . . . er, trunk. Yet this week, we saw that the room in which the bond market operates has more than one elephant. The other large mammal in question

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

By The Shores Of Lake Geneva

May 12, 2025 3 min read

Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process." The US and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Stock prices soared on this

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Is Tariffied

Apr 30, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is certainly upsetting global trade relations and confusing financial markets. This is all having an effect on the US economy, as evidenced by today's Q1 GDP report. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that real GDP fell 0.3% (saar) (chart). By the end of the day, the

Ed Yardeni

POTUS Blinks

Apr 23, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump blinked. So stock prices rose. Late Tuesday, he said that he has "no intention" of firing Jerome Powell, whose term as Fed chair will end in May 2026. That's after berating Powell for the past few days and threatening to fire him. Furthermore, Trump appeared to soften his stance on the US-China trade war on Tuesday, telling an Oval Office press conference that

Ed Yardeni

Damage Assessment

Apr 21, 2025 4 min read paid

Stock prices fell sharply today in response to President Donald Trump's recent unseemly barrage of hostile tweets directed at Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump seems to be setting Powell up to be the fall guy if Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) causes a recession later this year. Also unnerving stock prices was a warning from Beijing to all its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to

Ed Yardeni

A Rubik's Cube Of Questions Along With Some Weak Soft Data

Apr 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Will tariffs boost inflation and depress the US and global economies? Will inflation be transitory or persistent? Will the economy remain surprisingly resilient, at least for the next few months? Will consumers retrench after they go on a tariff-beating buying binge? Will robust capital spending related to onshoring offset weakness related to Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT)? Will China and the US escalate their trade war? Who will blink

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rise On Latest Trump Pivot

Apr 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to "help some of the car companies" with his 25% auto tariff (chart). The automakers "need a little bit of time" to move their production to the US, Trump said. Tech stocks rose too after guidance on Friday

Ed Yardeni

Tit-For-Tat: The Opposite Of Panda Diplomacy

Apr 14, 2025 2 min read

The trade war between the US and China is heating up, increasing the risk that China will invade Taiwan. Let us explain. On April 11, Reuters reported the following: "Shipments of seven rare earths placed on an export control list last week by Beijing have ground to halt, three sources said, raising the risk of shortages overseas as Chinese exporters begin the long, uncertain wait for government licenses. Shipments

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Follow The Bouncing POTUS

Apr 13, 2025 4 min read paid

In our December 17 Morning Briefing, we wrote: "With bullishness abounding, contrarian indicators are flashing red, and we see the potential for a market correction early next year." Our major concern was that the stock market's bulls were discounting too many cuts in the federal funds rate this year, while the bond market's bears were signaling that the Fed had already cut the rate

Ed Yardeni

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