Trump 2.0

Bond Vigilantes Hit Another Homerun

Apr 9, 2025 3 min read paid

"Bond investors are the economy's bond vigilantes. ... So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won’t regulate the economy, the bond investors will. The economy will be run by vigilantes in the credit markets.” – Ed Yardeni, 1983 "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Wall Street Is Main Street

Apr 6, 2025 4 min read paid

Conspiracy theories are usually wrong even though they seem to explain a lot. The latest conspiracy theory floating on social media is that President Donald Trump is causing a recession to bring interest rates down to reduce the federal government's net interest outlays and to lower mortgage rates to make homes more affordable. A recession would also weaken the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which would boost

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Annihilation Days

Apr 6, 2025 9 min read paid

💡This is a special advance release of Monday’s Morning Briefing, normally reserved for our institutional clients. Given recent developments, we wanted to share it with our QuickTakes community as well. As always, your comments are welcome. Trump’s Tariffs I: President’s Exit Ramp. So far, congressional Republicans are giving Trump Tariffs 2.0 the benefit of the doubt. Some are voicing their concerns. A few Senate Republicans are

Ed Yardeni

Stock Vigilantes Declare: 'Mr. President, Tear Down This Tariff Wall!'

Apr 4, 2025 3 min read

China imposed a 34% tariff on imports of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump's trade war today. The S&P 500 continues to fall freely and the Nasdaq entered bear market territory this morning. On March 10, when the S&P 500 closed at 5614.56, we wrote in our QuickTakes: "The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs,

Ed Yardeni

Unsettling Economic Policy Conditions Starting To Unsettle The Economy

Apr 1, 2025 3 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators shows a few signs that Trump Turmoil 2.0 started to weigh on the economy during March. That’s the message from the month's national ISM manufacturing purchasing managers survey. February's construction spending report shows that this sector is losing its upward momentum, for now. On the other hand, February's JOLTS release shows that the labor market

Ed Yardeni

Our New S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Under Trump's Reign Of Tariffs

Mar 31, 2025 4 min read

Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a shallow recession later this year, following a buy-in-advance shopping spree during April and May. We did so because Trump's Reign of Tariffs imposed a 25% permanent tariff on imported autos and auto parts last

Ed Yardeni

Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down

Mar 30, 2025 11 min read

YRI Bulletin Board. Our colleague Eric Wallerstein is taking a leave of absence. He has accepted a position on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. We wish him all the best. The following is a reprint of our Morning Briefing which we sent to our institutional investors today. We wanted to share it with our QuickTakes community of individual investors and business professionals. Your comments are always welcome. Reign

Ed Yardeni

Helter-Skelter

Mar 24, 2025 3 min read

"Helter-skelter" is a term used to describe disorderly haste, confusion, or chaos. That seems to be descriptive of the modus operandi of President Donald Trump's trade policy. Then again, perhaps there is method to the madness. Perhaps it is Trump's approach to the art of the deal. So the chaos is a feature and not a bug of his style of dealmaking. The technique

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Scared Cat Bounce?

Mar 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday the bottom? It might have been based on sentiment indicators. On a fundamental basis, President Donald Trump (a.k.a., Tariff Man) didn't tweet about tariffs today after doubling down on Thursday. "I'm not going to bend at all," Trump said when asked about

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stock Market Vigilantes On The Warpath

Mar 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs, and they don't like mass firings of federal workers. That's because they don't like stagflation, and they fear that Trump 2.0's focus on these measures could cause a recession with higher inflation. They really didn't like President Donald Trump's message on Sunday during an interview

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Investing Without A Trump Or Powell Put

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read

Anything is possible in Trump World. We can't rule out the possibility that a bear market started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 rose to a record high (chart). It could be like the "flash crashes" that occurred during 1962 and 1987. It could happen quickly and reverse just as quickly. So the selloff could provide buying opportunities, especially in overvalued

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed that tariff increases have a transitory, one-shot, price-rising impact. Indeed, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the Chinese "will eat any tariffs that go on."

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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