Trump 2.0

MARKET CALL: Investing Without A Trump Or Powell Put

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read

Anything is possible in Trump World. We can't rule out the possibility that a bear market started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 rose to a record high (chart). It could be like the "flash crashes" that occurred during 1962 and 1987. It could happen quickly and reverse just as quickly. So the selloff could provide buying opportunities, especially in overvalued

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed that tariff increases have a transitory, one-shot, price-rising impact. Indeed, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the Chinese "will eat any tariffs that go on."

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?

Mar 4, 2025 3 min read paid

We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be stronger in February and March, as we've discussed in recent days. However, Trump's tariffs imposed today on Canada, China, and Mexico could have stagflationary consequences

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Riding A Bucking Bull

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read paid

In recent weeks, many news headlines have suggested that the US economy is tanking and that so is the Old World Order. So investors are jittery, and a risk-off investment style is back in favor relative to a risk-on posture. They are questioning whether Trump 2.0 might depress the economy before stimulating it because higher tariffs, deportations, and federal job cuts are occurring before tax cuts, deregulation, and lower

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Choppy Waters

Feb 8, 2025 4 min read

The major stock market indexes are still up since Election Day despite recent turbulence caused by DeepSeek and Trump Tariffs 2.0 (chart). The former is weighing on the shares of AI companies. However, cloud giants Amazon, Microsoft, and Google remain committed to spending record sums this year to build out their AI capacity. Asked last week about the AI cost efficiencies represented by DeepSeek’s widely followed advances, Amazon

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Beware The Front Cover Curse & Trump Tariffs 2.0

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

We are sure that Forbes magazine has had plenty of cover stories about successful entrepreneurs who survived the front-cover curse and remained successful. However, the magazine has also featured a few rising stars who subsequently crashed and burned. The latest Forbes front cover features Michael Saylor of Microstrategy and is titled "The Bitcoin Alchemist." It's not a ringing endorsement. In any event: We have been warned.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Take Down These Interest Rates And Oil Prices Too!

Jan 23, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump invoked his inner President Ronald Reagan today in a virtual speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. But his asks amounted to a taller order than just "tear down this wall." During his address, Trump demanded lower interest rates (not just in the US, but globally), called on OPEC to lower oil prices, and urged that the Russia-Ukraine war must end as soon

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Foreigners Buying Lots Of US Dollars To Buy Lots Of US Stocks & Bonds

Jan 21, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market rose today, buoyed by the fact that President Donald Trump didn't raise tariffs on Day #1 of his second term as was widely expected. Instead, he will be raising them on Canada and Mexico on Day #13 (February 1). That's what he said Monday evening. Stocks also got a boost when Trump announced today that Softbank, OpenAI, and Oracle are forming a $100

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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