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FOMC Day Minus One: Waiting For Nothing
The federal funds rate (FFR) futures market has consistently been predicting several cuts in the FFR since March 2023 (chart)…
Unemployment
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Is The Economy On The Edge?
The good news is that the Magnificent-7 are still magnificent. Three of them (Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft) beat earnings expectations…
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Strongest Buy Signal Ever?
On Sunday (April 20), we observed that The Economist had just featured three consecutive very bearish cover stories suggesting that…
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Bond Vigilantes Remain Unhappy
It was not a happy day in the bond market. Neither was it a happy day in the stock market:…
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US Economy Is Still Resilient, But Tariffs Pose Risks
Today's batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.…
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Layoffs Rising According To Challenger Report. Is That Alarming?
We raised the odds of a recession on March 4 from 20% to 35%. Today's Challenger Report showed…
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Another Growth Scare
The stock market is in the midst of another growth scare, in our opinion. The latest batch of economic indicators…
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Hitting a Wal(mart)
Disappointing forward guidance from Walmart weighed on the stock market today. The company's shares fell 6.5% today…
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Fed's Dovish Pause Boosts Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his press conference yesterday was that the Fed is in no…
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Take Down These Interest Rates And Oil Prices Too!
President Donald Trump invoked his inner President Ronald Reagan today in a virtual speech at the World Economic Forum in…
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The Bond Vigilantes Are Fighting The Fed
After today's PPI, we won't be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall…
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Stock Market Rally Broadening As Economy Chugs Along
Fed officials may be cutting rates because they are worrying about the ominous "long and variable lags" of…
