Unemployment

US Economy Still Flying High

Aug 29, 2024 3 min read paid

Today was a Roaring 2020s kind of day. The DJIA jumped to yet another record high. Stock prices rose even as Nvidia dipped after beating quarterly earnings expectations (which were widely expected to beat expectations). Once again: No recession in today's economic indicators. For the past couple of years, many economists (and Jamie Dimon) have predicted that the consumer would soon be "tapped out" after exhausting

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Confirms Fed's Pivot To Rate Cuts. Doesn't Push Back Against Market Expectations.

Aug 23, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was dovish in his Jackson Hole speech today. He didn't hedge. He didn't push back against market expectations of several rate cuts ahead as we anticipated he might. He wasn't more dovish than the market, but he didn't utter any hawkish views whatsoever to alter the market's dovish expectations for several rate cuts (chart). Powell unambiguously

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Still On Bullish Track

Aug 22, 2024 3 min read

Stock traders took some profits today. They were probably nervous that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be less dovish tomorrow than the markets are about the outlook for rate cuts beyond 25bps in September. We've been less dovish than the markets since mid-June because we've been more bullish on the economy and the labor market than the consensus. Today's economic releases showed the US

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Don't Sweat Tomorrow's Payroll Revisions

Aug 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended March 2024. These data are used to revise previous payroll employment reports. They come with a lag, but are generally accepted to be more accurate than the initial monthly releases, which were already revised twice. The initial 12-month revisions can be large, recently having swung by more than

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Consumers Are Still Shopping, Not Dropping

Aug 15, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending. The latest data support our view that betting against consumers when jobs are expanding is a bad bet. In addition, cautious guidance by several consumer-related companies during the latest earnings reporting season might have been too cautious. Today on a call with analysts, Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon said,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Tough Treasury Auctions Belie Renewed Recession Chatter

Aug 8, 2024 3 min read paid

US stock prices and bond yields rose today following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims report confirming our view that the labor market is still doing well. The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% to 5,319.31 and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 4.00%. The recent lift in the bond yield was exacerbated by the second straight day of weak Treasury auctions. Let&

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: August 5-9

Aug 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is relatively light in terms of economic reports. It's also light on talking Fed heads. But, we won't be surprised if one or two of them pops up on CNBC. We think they might push back against the rate-cut mob that is calling for a 50bps cut in the federal funds rate in September. It would be a shame if they joined in

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Beryling Toward Rate Cuts

Aug 2, 2024 2 min read

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here's the market action as of midday: * The Nasdaq officially entered a correction, down more than 10% from its record high reached roughly a month ago. * The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) popped to 29, which hasn’t been seen since

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Risk On, Risk Off

Aug 1, 2024 2 min read paid

Today was a good day for the diehard hard-landers and the "stag-disinflationists." They're probably high fiving each other. We are in neither camp–we expect a continuation of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., a growing economy with subdued inflation. We're high fiving over today’s productivity and labor costs report. In any event, bond investors are certainly enjoying themselves; the 10-year yield fell 12 basis

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stock Market Rotates To Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors

Jul 18, 2024 3 min read paid

The bull market in stocks has been quite volatile in recent days as it rotates and broadens. The triggering event was a better-than-expected June CPI report on Thursday, July 11. Since then, the financial markets priced in a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Investors responded by rotating out of the S&P 500's Magnificent-7 into the S&P 1493 (i.e., 1500

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Disinflating CPI Broadens Market Rally As Investors Rotate To SMidCaps

Jul 11, 2024 2 min read paid

This morning, we weren't surprised by June's lower-than-expected CPI report. It does increase the odds of a cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) in September. That supports our expectation for the stock market rally to continue and broaden out from the Magnificent-7. Indeed, the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% this morning, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined as investors rotated into

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: July 8-12

Jul 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Last month, lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation readings for May, along with rising unemployment claims for June, raised market expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy sooner rather than later. The week ahead will be dominated by inflation data and jobless claims that are likely to confirm that the economy is in a disinflationary soft patch. That could boost both stock and bond prices. Consider the following: (1) CPI.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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