Unemployment

Zettascale Computing Is Coming Using Nvidia's Blackwell Chips!

Sep 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday, stock prices initially fell sharply following August's CPI report, but AI fever quickly turned the S&P 500 around to a 1% gain. Yesterday, Oracle announced it is taking orders for the first "zettascale" AI supercomputer, which will be powered by up to 131,072 Nvidia Blackwell chips. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also told a Goldman Sachs conference that demand for their Blackwell chips

Ed Yardeni

Employers Are Not Hiring Or Firing. Productivity May Be the Reason.

Sep 6, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Great Normalization

Sep 5, 2024 3 min read paid

Oops: Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We speculated that a leak of that information might have caused Tuesday's selloff. On Wednesday after the close, Nvidia denied that it had received a DOJ subpoena. Go figure! Today's economic data were consistent with our short-term thesis (i.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 2-6

Sep 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The shortened week ahead is an important one for labor market indicators. We expect them to show that August's employment continued to grow at a solid pace, and better than July's pace, which was weakened by bad weather. That should lift bond yields, the dollar, and cyclical sectors of the S&P 500. Here's more: (1) Employment. August's employment report (Fri)

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Still Flying High

Aug 29, 2024 3 min read paid

Today was a Roaring 2020s kind of day. The DJIA jumped to yet another record high. Stock prices rose even as Nvidia dipped after beating quarterly earnings expectations (which were widely expected to beat expectations). Once again: No recession in today's economic indicators. For the past couple of years, many economists (and Jamie Dimon) have predicted that the consumer would soon be "tapped out" after exhausting

Ed Yardeni

Powell Confirms Fed's Pivot To Rate Cuts. Doesn't Push Back Against Market Expectations.

Aug 23, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was dovish in his Jackson Hole speech today. He didn't hedge. He didn't push back against market expectations of several rate cuts ahead as we anticipated he might. He wasn't more dovish than the market, but he didn't utter any hawkish views whatsoever to alter the market's dovish expectations for several rate cuts (chart). Powell unambiguously

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Still On Bullish Track

Aug 22, 2024 3 min read

Stock traders took some profits today. They were probably nervous that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be less dovish tomorrow than the markets are about the outlook for rate cuts beyond 25bps in September. We've been less dovish than the markets since mid-June because we've been more bullish on the economy and the labor market than the consensus. Today's economic releases showed the US

Ed Yardeni

Don't Sweat Tomorrow's Payroll Revisions

Aug 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QECW) for the 12 months ended March 2024. These data are used to revise previous payroll employment reports. They come with a lag, but are generally accepted to be more accurate than the initial monthly releases, which were already revised twice. The initial 12-month revisions can be large, recently having swung by more than

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Are Still Shopping, Not Dropping

Aug 15, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending. The latest data support our view that betting against consumers when jobs are expanding is a bad bet. In addition, cautious guidance by several consumer-related companies during the latest earnings reporting season might have been too cautious. Today on a call with analysts, Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon said,

Ed Yardeni

Tough Treasury Auctions Belie Renewed Recession Chatter

Aug 8, 2024 3 min read paid

US stock prices and bond yields rose today following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims report confirming our view that the labor market is still doing well. The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% to 5,319.31 and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 4.00%. The recent lift in the bond yield was exacerbated by the second straight day of weak Treasury auctions. Let&

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 5-9

Aug 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is relatively light in terms of economic reports. It's also light on talking Fed heads. But, we won't be surprised if one or two of them pops up on CNBC. We think they might push back against the rate-cut mob that is calling for a 50bps cut in the federal funds rate in September. It would be a shame if they joined in

Ed Yardeni

Beryling Toward Rate Cuts

Aug 2, 2024 2 min read

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their prized LargeCap tech stocks and recently acquired SMidCaps. Here's the market action as of midday: * The Nasdaq officially entered a correction, down more than 10% from its record high reached roughly a month ago. * The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) popped to 29, which hasn’t been seen since

Ed Yardeni

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