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Consumers Are Still Shopping, Not Dropping
This morning's data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending.…
Unemployment
46 posts
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Tough Treasury Auctions Belie Renewed Recession Chatter
US stock prices and bond yields rose today following the release of the latest weekly jobless claims report confirming our…
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The Economic Week Ahead: August 5-9
The week ahead is relatively light in terms of economic reports. It's also light on talking Fed heads.…
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Beryling Toward Rate Cuts
Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including their…
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Risk On, Risk Off
Today was a good day for the diehard hard-landers and the "stag-disinflationists." They're probably high fiving…
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Stock Market Rotates To Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors
The bull market in stocks has been quite volatile in recent days as it rotates and broadens. The triggering event…
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Disinflating CPI Broadens Market Rally As Investors Rotate To SMidCaps
This morning, we weren't surprised by June's lower-than-expected CPI report. It does increase the odds of…
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The Economic Week Ahead: July 8-12
Last month, lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation readings for May, along with rising unemployment claims for June, raised market expectations…
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Soft Patch Getting Softer. Is That Raising Odds of Fed Rate Cut in September & Stock Market Meltup?
Last week and this week have been good ones for the recession camp of economists. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed'…
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The Economic Week Ahead: July 1-5
We know there will be fireworks on July 4th. The question is whether we should expect any blasts or just…
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Another Soft Patch
The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in…
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Rate Cuts This Year Unlikely As Fed Gets Closer To 2.0% Target
We still expect that the Fed's preferred core PCED inflation measure will fall to the Fed's…
