Valuation

How To Spot A Meltup

Feb 14, 2024 2 min read paid

We are sure that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently reread former Fed-Chair Alan Greenspan's December 5, 1996 speech in which he famously asked: "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy?" How

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 Continue To Impress

Feb 6, 2024 2 min read

Through Friday’s close, the S&P 500 price index is up 4.0% ytd to a record high. The MegaCap-8 collectively has outperformed with a gain of 7.6%, also a record high (chart). Without the MegaCap-8 stocks, the S&P 500 would be up 2.5% ytd. The MegaCap-8 now accounts for a record-high 28.3% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Meltup

Dec 28, 2023 2 min read paid

Meltups and meltdowns in the stock market are mostly attributable to rapid increases or decreases in earnings valuation multiples. The current meltup is no different. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% with its forward P/E up 14.5% since the October 27 correction low. That's mostly because investors have become more confident that inflation will continue to slow while the economy continues to grow.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Investors Broadening Their Horizon

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

The current bull market started during October of last year. Since then, the bears have been warning that it was a rally in a bear market. That's because most of them expected a recession, and many of them still do. In addition, they've observed that the rally has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. The rest of the stock market seemed to be comatose. Our view

Ed Yardeni

Are Stock Valuations Rerating?

Oct 26, 2023 2 min read

The economic news today was very good. But the stock market sold off sharply for the second day in a row led by a 1.90% drop in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 fell 1.19% today (chart). That's even though the bond market behaved with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.985% at 8:25 am to 4.851% by the close. But

Ed Yardeni

Both Analysts & Investors Are Optimistic

Jul 5, 2023 2 min read paid

In the stock market equation P = P/E x E, the consensus expected forward earnings of industry analysts determines earnings (E), while investors determine the forward earnings multiple (P/E) that they are willing to pay for E. Industry analysts remain optimistic on S&P 500 forward revenues which rose to another record high during the June 29 week (chart). They've also stopped lowering their consensus expectations

Ed Yardeni

MegaCap-8 Stocks Had a Very Bad 2022

Jan 2, 2023 2 min read

Sometimes it is better to own a small boat than a very large yacht. The former is cheaper to operate and easier to maneuver. The MegaCap-8 stocks won the S&P 500 regatta during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. They badly underperformed during 2022 once the pandemic abated. (The MegaCap-8 stocks are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, and Tesla.) Consider the following: (1) Market capitalization.

Ed Yardeni

Stock Valuation Multiples May Have Bottomed

Nov 12, 2022 1 min read Featured

There are no guarantees in life. Outcomes are usually contingent on a number of other outcomes, and so on. This certainly applies to the forward P/Es of the major S&P stock indexes shown below. If we continue to see better-than-expected inflation prints in coming months, like October's CPI on Thursday, then these valuation multiples most likely bottomed on October 12, when the S&P

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Fizzles

Oct 14, 2022 1 min read

Thursday's impressive reversal-day rally fizzled today. The big banks reported their Q3 earnings results today. On balance, they were better than expected. However, yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI weighed on the bond market, even though today's retail sales was relatively weak. Our Blue Angels framework (chart below) shows that S&P 500 forward earnings have been relatively flat since it peaked in late June. The

Ed Yardeni

Buffett Is Bullish While His Ratio Is Bearish

Aug 20, 2022 1 min read paid

Yesterday, the Motley Fool reported that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was on a buying spree during the recent bear market. Apparently, the Oracle of Omaha isn't concerned that his famous Buffett Ratio remains in bearish territory. In a December 2001 Fortune article, Buffett observed that when the ratio of the value of all stocks traded in the US to nominal GNP exceeds 200%, its best to

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Rally Could Sputter This Week

Aug 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The bull runs in the bond market since June 14 and the stock market since June 16 could stall this week. Both markets have probably discounted that July's CPI report (on Wednesday) should be moderated by falling gasoline prices and durable goods prices, while rent inflation could be more troublesome. The markets may not have fully discounted the likelihood that July's strong employment report (reported this

Ed Yardeni

Revaluing Earnings

Jul 30, 2022 1 min read paid

In the past few weeks, industry analysts started to shave their S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year and next year. Last Wednesday, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75bps to 2.25%-2.50%. On Thursday, we learned that real GDP fell for a second quarter in a row marking a technical recession, though a mild one so far. So, naturally, the stock market has

Ed Yardeni

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