Video Webcasts

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Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/15/23

Nov 15, 2023 1 min read

The stock market has a good track record as a business-cycle indicator, even though last year’s bear market was a false alarm, as investors expected a recession that never came. Since that bear market ended, in October 2022, the stock market has been in a bull market, with its August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Now the Bond Vigilantes and their concerns have retreated, clearing the way for the S&

• Ed Yardeni

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Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/8/23

Nov 8, 2023 1 min read paid

Last week brought epic rallies in both the stock and bond markets. We think the stock market’s correction is over and that the S&P 500 is back on track to end the year at 4600. All 11 sectors gained ground last week, many enjoying their best week in nearly a year. As for the bond market rally that carried the 10-year Treasury bond yield down to a

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/1/23

Nov 2, 2023 1 min read paid

We recently raised our subjective odds of a US recession before year-end 2024 from 25% to 35% mostly because the geopolitical risks continue to escalate. We see two potential scenarios that could result in a recession, but they don’t warrant raising our recession odds at this time. The US economy remains resilient; we review recent areas of strength. Also: Further escalation of war in the Middle East could bring

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/25/23

Oct 25, 2023 1 min read paid

The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects. The S&P 500 fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday in response to the geopolitical risks. We expect it to breach that level this week even if the bond yield declines. The escalation of hostilities we expect prompts us to raise our odds of a US recession

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/19/23

Oct 19, 2023 1 min read paid

To answer whether the latest bout of inflation in general will prove persistent or transitory, we must look deeper than the headline rate. Core rates exclude energy and food, but shelter arguably should be excluded to get the answer, as it too is still distorted by temporary pandemic-related factors. The resounding message we hear from September’s CPI data: Both headline and core CPI rates—ex shelter—were 2.0%

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/12/23

Oct 12, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, we challenge another aspect of the hard landers’ narrative: the notion that consumers will retrench, leading the broad economy into a recession. True, many consumers must resume paying the student-debt piper soon, and many have depleted their excess pandemic saving. … But bigger forces are supporting consumer spending: Consumers simply don’t halt the spending they love to do when their incomes are secure and growing, as now, with wages

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/4/23

Oct 4, 2023 1 min read paid

Last week’s plentiful economic news netted out to support our optimistic economic outlook through next year, bringing more signs of improving productivity, surging investment in manufacturing, and manageable inventories. Last week also brought some mixed news and some outright bad news, but we still see a 75% chance of a soft-landing scenario with disinflation and a 25% chance of a hard landing. Longer term, we’re still convinced that

• Ed Yardeni

Public

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/27/23

Sep 27, 2023 1 min read

The Fed has paused its rate hiking for now but not without warning that resumed tightening is possible. Either way, monetary policy will be kept restrictive for longer than investors previously expected, Fed Chair Powell has said. What does that scenario imply for the economic outlook? Peaks in the federal funds rate are coincident indicators of financial crises caused by restrictive policy, which often trigger credit crunches and recessions. That’

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/8/23

Sep 8, 2023 1 min read paid

What would it take for the Fed to abandon its hawkish stance? Three things, suggested Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech: core PCED inflation dropping closer to 2% y/y, demand for labor dropping closer to the supply of it, and consumer spending cooling off a bit. All that can happen without a recession, as it has twice before in recent history, and the latest data on all

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/6/23

Sep 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Is the surprising Q3 strength in the economy sustainable? Clues in the latest data releases suggest not, and our forecast calls for a renewed soft landing. A stronger-for-longer economy wouldn’t jibe with the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest-rate stance. ... But the economic outlook hinges much on what consumers do next. We don’t see them slamming on the spending brakes, as the hard-landers predict will happen when excess savings are

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/30/23

Aug 30, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, we examine Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The tone was more hawkish than we expected, with Powell saying that the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to raise interest rates further if needed to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2.0% target but failing to say what it would take for the Fed to lower interest rates given that inflation has been moderating.

• Ed Yardeni

Paid

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/23/23

Aug 23, 2023 1 min read paid

• Ed Yardeni