Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of recessionary indicators. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is tracking Q2’s real GDP at -2.0% currently, following Q1’s actual decline of -1.6%. It increasingly looks like the economy has entered a mild recession. However, this week’s indicators, with the focus almost entirely on consumers, aren't likely to be definitive on this matter:
(1) Demand for autos remains strong. But June’s auto sales (to be released on Tuesday) undoubtedly remained challenged by a shortage of inventories. However, sticker shock may start to weigh on demand given that new car prices in the CPI are up 12.6% y/y.